The simulation and forecast accuracy of the Bohai ice grade forecasting model by stepwise regression analysis is acceptable.

Marine Forecasts

Based on the data of sea ice grade in the Bohai Sea during 1951 to 2013, the spectrum of sea ice in the Bohai Sea was calculated and analyzed by using the maximum-entropy spectrum analysis method. The results showed sea ice had distinct inter-annual and inter-decadal variations, and the main spectrum of sea ice were 2-7years and 11 years. The correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis showed that the inter-annual variations of sea ice had close relationships with Western Pacific Subtropical High, Pacific Subtropical High,Asian polar vortex and Southern Oscillation. The simulation and forecast accuracy of the Bohai ice grade forecasting model by stepwise regression analysis is acceptable. The present method is highly reliable.

The simulation and forecast accuracy of the Bohai ice grade forecasting model by stepwise regression analysis is acceptable.

Application of stepwise regression analysis in Bohai sea ice grade forecasting