We derived physiological models that accurately predicted extinctions of Mexican and other lizards. Clusella-Trullas and Chown argue that global forecasts are unreliable without incorporating variance in microenvironmental temperatures, Te. Here, we show that Te variance is small relative to Te increases from climate warming. Thus, extinction forecasts are reliable (R¯2=0.72) even without Te variance data.

Climate warming increases microenvironmental temperatures, but the variance in these temperatures is small compared to the overall warming, making extinction forecasts reliable even without temperature data.

Response to Comment on “Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches”

Key Takeaway: Climate warming increases microenvironmental temperatures, but the variance in these temperatures is small compared to the overall warming, making extinction forecasts reliable even without temperature data.