B. Sinervo, D. Miles, N. Martínez‐Méndez
Apr 29, 2011
We derived physiological models that accurately predicted extinctions of Mexican and other lizards. Clusella-Trullas and Chown argue that global forecasts are unreliable without incorporating variance in microenvironmental temperatures, Te. Here, we show that Te variance is small relative to Te increases from climate warming. Thus, extinction forecasts are reliable (R¯2=0.72) even without Te variance data.