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Recent Developments in Atmospheric Temperature Trends and Forecasting
Troposphere and Stratosphere Temperature Trends
Recent studies have provided a comprehensive analysis of temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere over the past four decades. Observations from various sources, including satellites, radiosondes, and radio occultation (RO) measurements, indicate a robust cooling trend in the stratosphere by about 1-3 K and a warming trend in the troposphere by approximately 0.6-0.8 K from 1979 to 20181. These findings are consistent across different observational systems, with significant warming observed in the tropical upper-troposphere compared to surface trends, aligning with the moist adiabatic lapse rate theory1.
Data-Driven Temperature Forecasting Models
Accurate forecasting of atmospheric air temperature is crucial for various applications, including climate change studies and agricultural planning. Recent research has applied multiple data-driven models, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), Regression Tree (RT), and Random Forest (RF), to forecast short- and mid-term air temperatures in North America. Among these models, SVR has shown the highest accuracy for daily temperature predictions, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.592°C and a Correlation Coefficient (R) of 0.9642. These models' performance is significantly influenced by the duration and variability of the employed data, highlighting the impact of climate change on temperature patterns2.
Advances in Lower-Thermospheric Temperature Measurements
The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) has released new data products for nitric oxide (NO) volume mixing ratios and lower-thermospheric temperatures. These data, covering the entire Envisat mission, show improved accuracy and consistency compared to previous versions. The new MIPAS temperatures are systematically warmer than those from the empirical NRLMSIS model in the 100-120 km region, providing better representation of the diurnal tide in the lower thermosphere3.
Reanalysis of Upper-Air Temperature Data
Global atmospheric reanalysis products, such as ERA5, ERA-Interim, MERRA-2, and JRA-55, are valuable for studying climate trends due to their spatially complete and continuous temporal coverage. Recent intercomparisons of these datasets reveal consistent reproduction of upper-air temperature profiles, with differences from the Reanalysis Multi-Model Ensemble-mean (RMME) within ±0.25 K in the troposphere and lower stratosphere4. A robust cooling trend in the lower stratosphere and a warming trend in the troposphere are evident, particularly during periods of significant ozone depletion and post-1998, respectively4.
Impact of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on Temperature Extremes
Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns significantly influence surface temperature extremes. Recent studies have identified trends in these patterns that partially explain the observed increase in extreme temperature events. For instance, increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations contribute to summer and autumn hot extremes in Eurasia and North America, while northerly flow trends contribute to winter cold extremes in central Asia5. These findings suggest that both thermodynamic changes and alterations in circulation patterns are driving the increased risk of extreme temperatures5.
Examination of Satellite-Based Temperature Datasets
Satellite datasets, particularly those using microwave sounding units (MSUs), are critical for monitoring bulk atmospheric temperatures. Recent examinations of these datasets, updated since the IPCC AR5 report, show high correlations with radiosonde observations but vary in their linear trend estimates. The near-global and tropical trends from 1979 to 2016 range from +0.07 to +0.13°C per decade and +0.08 to +0.17°C per decade, respectively6. These trends are lower than those projected by IPCC climate models, indicating potential discrepancies in satellite data6.
Innovations in Vertical Temperature Profiling Using Drones
Uncrewed aerial systems (UASs) are emerging as a promising tool for high-resolution atmospheric temperature profiling, especially in urban environments. Recent research comparing drone-mounted temperature sensors with traditional radiosonde measurements has demonstrated the potential of UASs to capture accurate vertical temperature profiles. By applying data processing techniques, such as the Savitzky-Golay filter and Newton's law of cooling, researchers achieved notable accuracy improvements, suggesting that UASs could revolutionize atmospheric data collection7.
Conclusion
Recent advancements in atmospheric temperature measurement and forecasting have significantly enhanced our understanding of climate trends and extreme weather events. From robust temperature trends in the troposphere and stratosphere to innovative forecasting models and new measurement techniques, these developments are crucial for improving climate change predictions and mitigating its impacts.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Observed Temperature Changes in the Troposphere and Stratosphere from 1979 to 2018
A robust cooling of the stratosphere and a warming of the troposphere have been observed from 1979 to 2018, with consistent results across various observational systems.
Highly CitedData-driven models for atmospheric air temperature forecasting at a continental climate region
Support Vector Regression (SVR) is the most accurate model for daily air temperature forecasting in North America, while Regression Tree (RT) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) perform well in predicting weekly temperatures.
Rigorous JournalMichelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía version 8 retrieval of nitric oxide and lower-thermospheric temperature
New global nitric oxide and lower-thermospheric temperature data products from MIPAS version 8 show improved accuracy and better representation of the diurnal tide in the lower thermosphere compared to previous data versions.
Intercomparison of Atmospheric Upper-Air Temperature From Recent Global Reanalysis Datasets
All four global atmospheric reanalysis products show consistent upper-air temperature trends, with ERA5 showing the smallest temperature differences compared to radiosonde records.
Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends
Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
Rigorous JournalHighly Cited