Average temperature of us
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Average Temperature of the United States: Historical Trends and Projections
Historical Temperature Trends in the United States
Early 20th Century Temperature Patterns
The average temperature of the United States has experienced notable fluctuations over the past century. From 1895 to 1977, the U.S. saw a decrease in average temperature by approximately 1°F (0.6°C), with most of this cooling occurring in the eastern United States. For instance, the southeastern U.S. experienced a winter temperature drop of about 3°F (1.7°C) during this period1.
Mid to Late 20th Century Warming
In contrast, the period from 1981 to 2010 saw an increase in average temperatures by about 0.5°F compared to the previous three decades (1971-2000). This warming trend was observed across all states in the continental U.S., with both maximum and minimum annual temperatures rising4. Additionally, data from 1895 to 2008 indicates a positive linear trend in monthly average temperatures, with February showing the largest increase3.
Temperature Extremes and Variability
Record Highs and Lows
The ratio of daily record high maximum temperatures to daily record low minimum temperatures has increased significantly. In the first decade of the 21st century, this ratio averaged about 2 to 1, indicating more frequent record highs compared to lows2. This trend is expected to continue, with projections suggesting a ratio of approximately 15 to 1 for a 3°C increase in U.S. temperatures2.
Regional Temperature Extremes
Temperature extremes vary significantly across different regions. For example, California has recorded some of the highest and lowest temperatures in the contiguous U.S., with Death Valley often being the hottest spot and Bodie frequently recording the lowest temperatures5.
Future Projections and Climate Models
Projected Temperature Increases
Climate models project that the U.S. will continue to experience an increase in average temperatures. By the end of the 21st century, the ratio of record high maximum to record low minimum temperatures could reach as high as 50 to 1 under certain emission scenarios9. These projections are based on observed trends and model simulations that account for factors such as reduced summer precipitation and evapotranspiration2.
Impact on Wellbeing and Quality of Life
Despite the significant changes in temperature, the impact on daily wellbeing appears to be minimal. Warmer days have been associated with reduced physical health but higher levels of subjective wellbeing and positive emotions. However, these effects are small and not robust when considering various area and behavioral factors10. Additionally, changes in climate amenities could lead to annual welfare losses of 1% to 4% of income by 2100, assuming no changes in technology or preferences6.
Conclusion
The average temperature of the United States has undergone significant changes over the past century, with a notable warming trend in recent decades. This trend is expected to continue, leading to more frequent temperature extremes. While the direct impact on daily wellbeing may be limited, the broader implications for climate amenities and quality of life warrant attention. Understanding these trends and projections is crucial for developing effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
The Climate of the United States since 1895: Spatial and Temporal Changes
An east-west mode for temperature and precipitation changes dominates the continental United States, with most of the cooling occurring in the eastern United States over the past 25 years.
Highly CitedUS daily temperature records past, present, and future
The ratio of daily record high temperatures to daily record low temperatures in the continental United States has increased to about 2 to 1, with climate models showing larger values than observations, partly due to the "warm 1930s" and less rainfall and evapotranspiration.
Uncertainties, Trends, and Hottest and Coldest Years of U.S. Surface Air Temperature since 1895: An Update Based on the USHCN V2 TOB Data
USHCN V2 TOB data are 1895, 1913, and 1924, with the three hottest (coldest) years being 1913, 1913, and 1924.
Higher “normal” U.S. temperatures
U.S. temperatures averaged 0.5°F warmer from 1981 to 2010 than from 1971 to 2000, according to new climate "normals" released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center.
Temperature Extremes
In the contiguous United States, the highest temperature was 123°F, the lowest -43°F, and the coldest -35°F was in Bodie, California.
Nber Working Paper Series Climate Amenities, Climate Change, and American Quality of Life Albouy Acknowledges Financial Support from Nsf Grant Ses-0922340. We Thank
Americans prefer a daily average temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, are willing to pay more for avoiding excess heat than cold, and may experience annual welfare losses of 1%-4% of income due to climate change by 2100.
Highly CitedSUMMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UNITED STATES
A typical warm summer in the United States occurs 15 times per century, with temperatures above 85°F (30°C) being ideal for refrigerated storage of chocolate candy.
Decreasing human body temperature in the United States since the Industrial Revolution
Human body temperature has decreased by 0.03°C per birth decade since the Industrial Revolution, providing a framework for understanding changes in body habitus and human longevity over the last 200 years.
Observational Study
Rigorous JournalHighly CitedRelative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S.
The ratio of record high maximum temperatures to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. is currently about two to one, but this ratio is projected to increase to 20 to 1 by mid-century and 50 to 1 by the end of the century under an A1B emission scenario.
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