Climate predictions
Pro Research Analysisby 
Searched over 200M research papers for "climate predictions"
Advances in Climate Predictions: Decadal and Near-Term Forecasting
Decadal Climate Predictions: Enhanced Accuracy with Large Ensembles
Improved Skill in Surface Temperature, Precipitation, and Atmospheric Circulation
Recent research has demonstrated significant advancements in decadal climate predictions, particularly when utilizing large ensembles of climate models. These models have shown high skill in predicting surface temperature, and recent studies have also revealed improved accuracy in forecasting precipitation over land and atmospheric circulation 1. This progress is crucial for providing reliable guidance for climate adaptation and resilience planning.
The Role of Initialisation with Observations
A key factor in enhancing the skill of decadal predictions is the initialisation of models with current climate observations, especially from the ocean. This approach has been shown to bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and long-term climate projections, offering a more seamless climate service delivery chain 2. By leveraging a large, multi-model ensemble, researchers have been able to make skillful predictions for various regions, including the Sahel, Europe, and Eurasia, although challenges remain for areas like the South Atlantic and Southern Ocean 1.
Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Predictions
Model and Internal Variability
Despite these advancements, significant challenges persist in climate prediction. Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Studies have shown that model uncertainty is a major contributor to prediction errors, but it is also a potentially reducible source through advancements in climate science 4. This highlights the need for continuous improvement in climate models to enhance their reliability.
Underestimation of Predictability
Another critical issue is the underestimation of predictability in climate models. Research indicates that the predictable component in models is sometimes lower than in observations, particularly for seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and multiyear forecasts of North Atlantic temperature and pressure. This underconfidence can be mitigated by using large ensembles to reduce noise and adjusting forecast variance through postprocessing techniques 6.
Near-Term Climate Predictions: Bridging the Gap
Operational Predictions and Real-Time Forecasts
Near-term climate predictions, which operate on annual to decadal timescales, are essential for climate adaptation and resilience. These predictions can be rigorously verified against observations, providing a valuable tool for decision-makers. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project has demonstrated the skill of climate forecast systems in predicting regional temperatures over the past 50 years, attributing most of the skill to changes in atmospheric composition and initialisation of predictions 7.
Probabilistic Forecast Systems
Innovative methods, such as probabilistic forecast systems, have been developed to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature. These systems offer high reliability and accuracy, even predicting phenomena like the post-1998 global warming hiatus. For the period 2018-2022, these forecasts indicate a warmer than normal period, reinforcing the long-term global warming trend and increasing the likelihood of extreme temperatures 8.
Conclusion
The field of climate prediction has made significant strides, particularly in decadal and near-term forecasting. The use of large ensembles and the initialisation of models with current observations have greatly improved the skill of these predictions. However, challenges remain, particularly in reducing model uncertainty and accurately representing the predictable components of the climate system. Continued advancements in climate science and model development are essential for providing reliable and actionable climate predictions that can aid society in adapting to ongoing climate variability and change.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic