Current space events
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Current Space Events: A Comprehensive Overview
September 2017 Space Weather Events: X-Class Flares and Geomagnetic Storms
In early September 2017, a series of significant space weather events were observed, characterized by four X-class solar flares originating from Active Region AR 12673. These flares had notable impacts on the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field, as recorded by the SWARM satellite and ground-based magnetometers. The flares caused substantial increases in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC), with the most significant increases observed in Ascension Island and Kourou during the X9.3 and X8.2 flares, respectively. The events also led to radio fade-outs lasting from 30 to 90 minutes and highlighted the potential for GPS positioning errors and loss of high-frequency communication signals1.
Historical Context: The May 1967 Great Storm
The May 1967 space weather storm remains one of the most significant events of the past 80 years. It began with a massive solar radio burst that disrupted radio communications and was followed by a solar energetic particle event that further affected high-frequency communication in the polar regions. This storm underscored the importance of space weather forecasting, leading to more formal support from the Department of Defense for such efforts. The event's impact on military control and communication during the Cold War era highlights the critical need for robust space weather monitoring and prediction systems3.
SpaceX and Space Weather: The February 2022 Starlink Incident
The launch of 49 Starlink satellites by SpaceX on February 3, 2022, serves as a recent example of how even modest space weather can have significant consequences. A minor geomagnetic storm increased atmospheric drag, resulting in the loss of most of the satellites. This incident underscores the importance of considering space weather conditions in satellite operations and has led to adjustments in subsequent launches, such as using higher initial orbits to mitigate similar risks6.
Extreme Space Weather Events: Understanding and Forecasting
Extreme space weather events, though rare, can have profound impacts on modern society. These events can disrupt spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. Current scientific understanding of these events involves analyzing historical records and observations to develop probabilistic forecasts. However, several key issues remain unresolved, such as the maximum size of such events and their potential societal consequences. Addressing these issues is crucial for improving our ability to predict and mitigate the effects of extreme space weather2.
The 1859 Solar-Terrestrial Disturbance: A Benchmark for Extreme Events
The September 1859 solar-terrestrial disturbance, also known as the Carrington Event, is often cited as the benchmark for extreme space weather activity. This event ranks near the top in various measures of solar-induced disturbances, including magnetic crochet amplitude and geomagnetic storm intensity. It serves as a critical reference point for understanding the potential severity of future space weather events and underscores the need for preparedness5.
Real-Time Monitoring and Forecasting: The November 2004 Events
The space weather events of November 2004, one of the largest of Solar Cycle 23, highlight the challenges of real-time monitoring and forecasting. These events involved multiple interacting coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that created complex geoeffective interplanetary structures. Despite significant geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) observed in power grids and pipelines, no major problems were reported. The events revealed deficiencies in forecasting CME propagation and geomagnetic disturbances, emphasizing the need for improved prediction models7.
Detection Methods: Space Event Detection Techniques
Advanced methods have been developed to detect space events, such as maneuvers, collisions, and explosions involving space objects. One effective technique involves a moving window curve fit to estimate parameter values and detect sudden changes indicative of space events. This method, implemented by the Cheyenne Mountain Operations Center, is computationally efficient and capable of filtering noise to process time-varying data, making it a valuable tool for space event detection4.
Conclusion
The study of current and historical space weather events reveals the significant impact these phenomena can have on technology and society. From the severe flares of September 2017 to the lessons learned from the 1967 and 1859 storms, it is clear that robust monitoring, forecasting, and mitigation strategies are essential. As space activities continue to grow, understanding and preparing for space weather events will remain a critical priority.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Multi‐Instrument Investigation of the Impact of the Space Weather Events of 6–10 September 2017
Space weather events of 6-10 September 2017 caused potential GPS positioning errors and loss of high-frequency communication and GNSS navigation signals, with low risk to critical ground infrastructures.
Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave
Extreme space weather events can significantly impact our society, but key issues like event size and societal consequences remain unresolved.
Highly CitedThe May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses
The May 1967 space weather storm, a "Great Storm" of the twentieth century, led to improved space weather forecasting and a stronger Department of Defense support for current-day forecasting efforts.
Highly CitedSpace Event Detection Method
The developed method effectively detects space events, such as maneuvers, collisions, and weather events, using state vector parameters from space objects tracked by the CheyenneMountain Operations Center.
Highly CitedThe 1859 Solar–Terrestrial Disturbance And the Current Limits of Extreme Space Weather Activity
The 1859 solar-terrestrial disturbance is the only event in the last 150 years to rank at or near the top of all six major categories of space weather activity.
Highly CitedSpaceX—Sailing Close to the Space Weather?
Minor geomagnetic storms can significantly impact space launches, and SpaceX's Starlink satellites experienced significant losses due to atmospheric drag, highlighting the need for better communication and understanding of space weather risks.
November 2004 space weather events: Real‐time observations and forecasts
The November 2004 space weather event was complex and challenging to forecast, with real-time observations showing rapid expansion of the auroral oval and ionospheric variability.
Signatures of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles and Ionospheric Scintillations from Magnetometer and GNSS Observations in the Indian Longitudes during the Space Weather Events of Early September 2017
During the severe space weather events of 6-10 September 2017, magnetometer and GNSS observations revealed the severity and drifting characteristics of ionospheric plasma irregularities over Indian low latitudes.
Trends in space activities in 2014: The significance of the space activities of governments
2014's global space activities were influenced by geopolitics and the growing integration of commercial and governmental space activities, highlighting the importance of space exploration, human spaceflights, and security.
On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events
The probability of an extreme space weather event occurring within a certain interval of time is 12%, with the likelihood of another Carrington event occurring within the next decade being 12%.
Observational StudyHighly Cited