Diabetes numbers
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Global Diabetes Numbers: Current Estimates and Future Projections
Global Prevalence of Diabetes
The prevalence of diabetes has been rising steadily over the past few decades and is projected to continue increasing. In 2015, it was estimated that 415 million people aged 20-79 years were living with diabetes globally, with this number expected to rise to 642 million by 2040. Similarly, in 2019, the global prevalence of diabetes was estimated at 9.3% (463 million people), projected to increase to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. These figures highlight the growing burden of diabetes worldwide.
Regional Variations in Diabetes Prevalence
Diabetes prevalence varies significantly across different regions. In 2019, the prevalence was higher in urban areas (10.8%) compared to rural areas (7.2%), and in high-income countries (10.4%) compared to low-income countries (4.0%). The majority of people with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries, which are expected to experience the greatest increase in diabetes cases over the coming decades .
Type 1 Diabetes in Children and Adolescents
The incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents are also on the rise. In 2019, there were an estimated 98,200 new cases annually in children under 15 years and 128,900 new cases in those under 20 years. The corresponding prevalence estimates were 600,900 and 1,110,100 existing cases, respectively. The highest numbers of children with type 1 diabetes were found in Europe and North America.
Mortality Attributable to Diabetes
Diabetes significantly contributes to global mortality rates. In 2019, an estimated 4.2 million deaths among adults aged 20-79 years were attributable to diabetes, accounting for 11.3% of global deaths in this age group. The highest proportion of diabetes-related deaths occurred in the Middle East and North Africa (16.2%), while the lowest was in Africa (6.8%).
Future Projections and Implications
The number of people with diabetes is projected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. By 2030, the global prevalence is expected to reach 10.2%, affecting 578 million people, and by 2045, it is projected to rise to 10.9%, affecting 700 million people. This increase is particularly pronounced in developing countries, where the number of adults with diabetes is expected to rise by 69% between 2010 and 2030.
Conclusion
The global burden of diabetes is substantial and continues to grow, with significant implications for health systems, economies, and societies worldwide. Effective prevention and management strategies are essential to address this escalating public health challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where the impact is expected to be greatest.
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