does legal abortion reduce crime?

Introduction

The relationship between legalized abortion and crime rates has been a topic of significant debate and research. Various studies have explored whether the legalization of abortion has contributed to reductions in crime, with some suggesting a causal link and others finding little to no impact. This synthesis aims to present the key insights from multiple research papers on this topic.

Key Insights

Support for a Causal Link Between Legalized Abortion and Crime Reduction:
- Several studies suggest that legalized abortion has significantly contributed to crime reductions, particularly noting that crime began to fall roughly 18 years after abortion legalization. States with higher abortion rates in the 1970s and 1980s experienced greater crime reductions in the 1990s .
- Donohue and Levitt (2001) argue that legalized abortion played an important role in the crime drop of the 1990s, estimating that overall crime fell 17.5% from 1998 to 2014 due to legalized abortion.
- Empirical evidence indicates that the crack-cocaine epidemic affected high-abortion states more severely, and when controlling for this, abortion is negatively related to crime .
Challenges to the Causal Link:
- Some studies find little consistent evidence that the legalization of abortion had a significant effect on recent crime rates, suggesting that the observed association may be due to unmeasured period effects such as changes in crack cocaine use .
- Analyses using alternative identification strategies and focusing on different periods or cohorts also find no meaningful association between abortion and age-specific crime rates .
Impact of Abortion Policy in Different Contexts:
- Research on the Romanian context, where abortion was abolished in 1966 and legalized in 1989, shows significant effects on the level of crime and risky behavior-related hospitalization. However, these effects are attributed to cohort size rather than selection or unwantedness effects .

Conclusion

The research on the impact of legalized abortion on crime presents mixed findings. While some studies strongly support a causal link between legalized abortion and subsequent reductions in crime, others challenge this association, attributing observed crime declines to other factors such as the crack-cocaine epidemic. Additionally, context-specific studies, like those from Romania, highlight the complexity of isolating the effects of abortion policy on crime. Overall, the evidence suggests that while legalized abortion may have contributed to crime reductions, it is likely not the sole factor, and other variables must be considered.

Does legal abortion reduce crime?

Summary

Consensus Meter

Introduction

Key Insights

Conclusion

Sources and full results

Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime?

Legalized abortion in 1970s and 1980s states showed little consistent evidence of reducing crime rates, likely due to unmeasured factors like crack cocaine use.

Further Evidence that Legalized Abortion Lowered Crime

Legalized abortion is negatively related to crime, as evidenced by a stronger negative relationship when extending the sample to cover the entire life of cohorts exposed to abortion.

The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime Over the Last Two Decades

Legalized abortion contributed to a 1% annual decline in overall crime from 1998 to 2014, explaining most of the observed decline in violent and property crime rates.

The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime

Legalized abortion contributes to as much as 50% of the recent drop in crime, with crime beginning to fall roughly 18 years after abortion legalization.

Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime

Legalized abortion's association with crime reduction is not causal, but likely due to unmeasured period effects like changes in crack cocaine use and its spillover effects.

The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime: Comment

Legalized abortion's impact on crime is weaker when using per capita crime data and cross-state variation, and the paper's earlier tests are not robust to predate crime trends.

A Simple Test of Abortion and Crime

Abortion rates show no meaningful association with age-specific crime rates, regardless of the legalization of abortion in 1973.

The impact of abortion on crime and crime-related behavior

The abolition and legalization of abortion in Romania significantly increased crime levels and risky-behavior related hospitalizations, but had insignificant effects on crime and hospitalization rates.

The Impact of Abortion on Crime and Crime-Related Behavior

The Romanian abortion reforms significantly impacted crime levels and risky-behavior related hospitalizations, but the impact was driven by cohort size effects rather than selection or unwantedness effects.

Further Evidence that Legalized Abortion Lowered Crime

Legalized abortion is negatively related to crime, as demonstrated by extending the sample to cover the entire life of cohorts studied, despite Joyce's failure to find a link during the crack epidemic.

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