Nyc winter weather predictions
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NYC Winter Weather Predictions
Forecasting Precipitation Types in NYC Winter
Objective Methods for Precipitation Forecasting
Forecasting winter precipitation types in New York City (NYC) involves using various atmospheric parameters. One method utilizes surface temperature, freezing level, and horizontal temperature advection at 850 mb to predict precipitation types accurately. This method has been validated and shows reliable results for NYC's winter weather1. Another approach employs ordered statistics, incorporating surface and upper-level data, to create an objective forecasting guide. This guide has proven to be highly accurate in predicting rain and snow occurrences in NYC2.
Microwave Radiometers for Real-Time Monitoring
Microwave radiometers (MWR) offer a significant advantage in monitoring and predicting winter precipitation types. The New York State Mesonet (NYSM) profiler network uses MWR to provide thermodynamic profiles every 10 minutes, which helps in real-time tracking of hazardous winter weather. The MWR data, validated against reference observations, show high accuracy in predicting rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet, making it a valuable tool for accurate forecasting and timely warnings3.
Mesoclimatology and Urban Heat Island Effects
Mesoscale Variation in Snow Probability
The empirical probability of snow on a winter precipitation day in the NYC metropolitan area is influenced by the urban heat island effect. Data from weather stations reveal that urban areas, due to their heat retention, have a lower probability of snowfall compared to suburban areas. This mesoclimatology data is crucial for translating large-scale weather predictions into localized forecasts4.
Urban Heat Island and Winter Weather
The urban heat island (UHI) effect in NYC significantly impacts winter weather patterns. During extreme heat events, the UHI effect can keep nighttime temperatures higher, which influences the type and amount of precipitation. This effect is more pronounced on clear nights with low humidity and weak winds, where temperature differences between urban and rural areas can exceed 8°C5 10.
Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS)
Enhancing Forecast Accuracy and Socioeconomic Impact
The National Weather Service (NWS) has implemented Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) to better connect forecasts with critical decision-making processes. IDSS tailors services to specific needs, providing more accurate information and support during extreme winter storms. This approach has been shown to reduce socioeconomic impacts by improving preparedness and response to winter weather events6.
Climate Change and Future Projections
Changes in Snow Patterns and Runoff Timing
Climate change is projected to alter snowfall patterns and the timing of runoff in NYC. Increased winter temperatures and precipitation, along with earlier snowmelt, are expected to result in more winter runoff. This will affect reservoir storage levels, leading to earlier refills in spring and potentially reducing drought conditions despite increased evapotranspiration later in the year8.
Increased Wind Gusts and Storm Intensity
Future projections indicate that NYC will experience higher wind gusts and more intense storm events due to climate change. The most extreme wind events are expected to occur during winter and early spring, with significant implications for urban planning, power outages, and public safety9.
Conclusion
Accurate winter weather predictions for NYC rely on advanced forecasting methods, real-time monitoring tools, and understanding the impacts of urban heat islands and climate change. By integrating these approaches, forecasters can provide more reliable and timely information, helping to mitigate the adverse effects of winter weather on the city's infrastructure and residents.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
An Objective Method for Forecasting Precipitation Type During the Winter Months at New York City1
The developed method effectively forecasts precipitation type during winter months in New York City using surface temperature, freezing level, and horizontal temperature advection at 850 mb.
Forecasting Snow and Rain for the New York City Area Using the Method of Ordered Statistics
The developed forecasting guide using order statistics properties is a highly accurate tool for predicting rain and snow in New York City, considering both surface and upper level data.
Winter Precipitation Type from Microwave Radiometers in New York State Mesonet Profiler Network
Microwave radiometers in the New York State Mesonet Profiler Network accurately predict winter precipitation types, improving forecasting and reducing adverse impacts.
Rain-Snow Mesoclimatology of the New York Metropolitan Area
The urban "heat island" effect significantly impacts snowfall probabilities in the New York metropolitan area, with mesoclimatology potentially aiding in translating large-scale weather predictions into low forecasts.
Forecasting the New York City Urban Heat Island and Sea Breeze during Extreme Heat Events
COAMPS and NAM models accurately forecasted extreme heat events in New York City, with COAMPS showing better performance than NAM, but both models struggled with urban heat island effects.
The Value of Impact-Based Decision Support Services: Case Studies with Winter Storms
Impact-based decision support services (IDSS) from the National Weather Service can help reduce socioeconomic impacts during extreme winter storms.
Operational Forecasting of Lake Effect Snowfall in Western and Central New York
Lake effect snowfall in western and central New York is forecasted using a computer program developed by the National Weather Service Office in Buffalo, which combines wind direction, temperature, and fetch data to provide guidance for predicting snowfall.
Highly CitedEffects of changes in snow pattern and the timing of runoff on NYC water supply system
Changes in precipitation and snowmelt will affect the NYC water supply system, causing more runoff during winter and reducing drought days.
Projections of Wind Gusts for New York City Under a Changing Climate
New York City is projected to experience higher wind gusts under a warming climate, with the most extreme event projected to produce a maximum of 110 mph, affecting urban planning, power outages, transportation disruptions, and public safety.
Mesoscale aspects of the Urban Heat Island around New York City
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) of New York City rapidly switches on and shuts down in late afternoon and early morning, with its largest extent occurring two to three nights after cold front passages.
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