Sea level rise 2100 map
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Sea Level Rise by 2100: Mapping the Future
Projected Sea Level Rise Scenarios
Global Projections and Uncertainties
By 2100, sea levels are projected to rise significantly due to climate change, with estimates varying based on emission scenarios and regional factors. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report suggests a "likely" range of 0.52 to 0.98 meters for the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5) by 2100, with a possibility of exceeding this range if Antarctic ice sheets collapse. Expert assessments indicate a median likely range of 0.4 to 0.6 meters under low warming scenarios and up to 1 meter under high warming scenarios. Probabilistic projections highlight the significant uncertainties beyond 2050, emphasizing the need for adaptive planning.
Regional Impacts and High-Risk Areas
Mediterranean Coastal Plains
In the Mediterranean, the Italian coastal plains are at high risk. Studies predict that up to 5500 km² of coastal plains could be flooded by 2100, significantly altering the landscape and impacting local infrastructure. Specific sites like Pyrgi and Motya in Italy are expected to experience substantial flooding, with sea levels rising by approximately 0.56 meters under high emission scenarios, leading to significant beach loss and potential damage to cultural heritage sites .
Global Coastal Vulnerability
Globally, the worst-case scenarios for extreme sea levels (ESLs) suggest that by 2100, up to 45% of the global coastline could experience ESLs exceeding 4.2 meters, driven primarily by sea level rise rather than storm surges or waves. Coastal areas in East China, Japan, and Northern Europe could see ESLs as high as 9-10 meters. Additionally, new elevation data indicates that up to 630 million people could be living on land below projected annual flood levels by 2100 under high emission scenarios, tripling previous estimates.
Implications for Coastal Management
Infrastructure and Urban Planning
The projected sea level rise necessitates urgent adaptation and protection strategies for coastal infrastructure. High-resolution Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) and Digital Surface Models (DSMs) are crucial for accurate mapping and planning. For instance, the use of UAV imagery in Pyrgi has enabled the creation of ultra-high-resolution maps, aiding in the development of effective coastal management plans.
Cultural Heritage Preservation
Cultural heritage sites along the Mediterranean coast, such as the Etruscan temples and medieval castles, face significant risks from rising sea levels and storm surges. Detailed flooding scenarios and the integration of topographic data with sea level projections are essential for developing preservation strategies .
Conclusion
The anticipated sea level rise by 2100 poses a severe threat to coastal regions worldwide, with significant implications for urban planning, infrastructure, and cultural heritage preservation. Accurate mapping and adaptive strategies are essential to mitigate these risks and protect vulnerable coastal communities. The integration of high-resolution data and probabilistic projections will be key in developing effective responses to the challenges posed by rising sea levels.
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