Sea level rise map 2050
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Sea Level Rise Map 2050: Projections and Implications
Global Sea Level Rise Projections for 2050
Ice Mass Loss from Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets
The primary drivers of global sea level rise are the ice mass losses from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (AIS and GrIS). Empirical projections estimate that from 2021 to 2050, the global sea level rise due to AIS and GrIS will range between 6-19 mm and 15-31 mm, respectively. These projections are based on historical patterns of ice dynamics and future surface mass balance data from climate models.
Probabilistic Projections and Regional Variability
Probabilistic models suggest that global mean sea level may rise between 18-48 cm by 2050. However, more than 90% of coastal areas are expected to experience greater rises due to regional variations in ocean dynamics and gravitational changes associated with water mass redistribution . For instance, the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway could see rises up to 0.4 m by 2040 under a 2°C warming scenario.
Specific Regional Projections
- Mexican Caribbean: The sea level in the North-East side of the Yucatan peninsula is projected to rise by 67-76 mm by 2050, based on long-term tide gauge data and GPS measurements.
- Portugal: Vulnerability assessments for the Atlantic coast of mainland Portugal estimate that 903 km² of coastal areas will be vulnerable to sea level rise by 2050.
Methodologies for Mapping Sea Level Rise
High-Resolution Digital Surface Models (DSM)
High-resolution DSMs generated from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) imagery are crucial for mapping coastal changes. For example, in Pyrgi, Italy, DSMs with an accuracy of 1.94 cm/pixel were used to project sea level rise scenarios for 2050 and 2100, incorporating vertical land motion data from GNSS stations.
LiDAR Digital Elevation Models (DEMs)
LiDAR DEMs are essential for identifying assets vulnerable to inundation. However, the lack of comprehensive standards for estimating LiDAR error can lead to inconsistent calculations of uncertainty. Despite these challenges, LiDAR DEMs integrated into GIS can effectively map areas vulnerable to direct marine and groundwater inundation.
Implications for Coastal Communities
Socio-Economic and Ecological Risks
Coastal communities, especially in rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical ecosystems, will face significant socio-economic and ecological risks due to sea level rise. These communities will have limited time to adapt to unprecedented sea level rises, which could exceed the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m by 2100 under high warming scenarios.
Adaptation and Protection Strategies
Accurate sea level rise projections are essential for developing adaptation and protection strategies. For instance, the heritage site of Pyrgi, Italy, will require suitable adaptation measures to mitigate the risks of marine flooding and storm surges. Similarly, the Lisbon district in Portugal has been identified as highly vulnerable, necessitating targeted adaptation plans.
Conclusion
The projections for sea level rise by 2050 indicate significant regional variability, with some areas experiencing more pronounced rises than the global average. High-resolution mapping techniques, such as DSMs and LiDAR DEMs, are critical for accurately identifying vulnerable areas and informing adaptation strategies. Coastal communities must prepare for the socio-economic and ecological impacts of rising sea levels, with a focus on developing robust adaptation and protection measures to mitigate these risks.
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