What are the effects of global warming on infectious disease patterns?
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Effects of Global Warming on Infectious Disease Patterns
Introduction: Global Warming and Infectious Diseases
Global warming, characterized by rising temperatures and changing weather patterns, has profound implications for infectious diseases. The interaction between climate change and infectious diseases is complex, involving various environmental, biological, and socio-economic factors. This article synthesizes current research on how global warming affects the patterns and dynamics of infectious diseases.
Vector-Borne Diseases: Expansion and Intensification
Mosquito-Borne Diseases
Global warming significantly impacts vector-borne diseases, particularly those transmitted by mosquitoes. Warmer temperatures can expand the geographic range of mosquitoes, such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, which transmit dengue and yellow fever viruses. These mosquitoes may move northward and undergo faster metamorphosis, potentially leading to more frequent and severe epidemics in new regions2 5. Additionally, the increased feeding activity and number of infected mosquitoes can elevate the incidence of diseases like malaria and dengue fever3.
ENSO Events and Disease Emergence
El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) events, influenced by climate change, are associated with the emergence of various infectious diseases. Warm El Niño events have been linked to higher risks of Rift Valley fever, cholera, and malaria, while cold La Niña events correlate with increased cases of dengue fever, chikungunya, and yellow fever1. These patterns suggest that more frequent and intense ENSO events due to global warming could lead to more frequent and severe outbreaks of these diseases1.
Water- and Foodborne Diseases: Increased Incidence
Global warming also affects water- and foodborne diseases. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns can lead to the contamination of water sources, enhancing the transmission of diseases like cholera and diarrheal diseases2 3. For instance, Vibrio cholerae, the bacterium causing cholera, thrives in warmer waters, and climate change may facilitate its spread in regions like the U.S. Gulf Coast5.
Wildlife and Zoonotic Diseases: Shifting Patterns
Thermal Mismatch Hypothesis
Climate change alters the risk of wildlife diseases, which can spill over to humans. The "thermal mismatch" hypothesis suggests that hosts from warm climates experience greater infection burdens under cool conditions, while hosts from cool climates face higher risks under warm conditions. For example, fungal diseases in amphibians increase under cold abnormalities in warm climates, whereas bacterial diseases rise under warm abnormalities in cool climates4. This dynamic can influence the prevalence of zoonotic diseases, which are diseases transmitted from animals to humans.
Ecological and Socio-Economic Factors
The impact of global warming on infectious diseases is also mediated by ecological and socio-economic factors. Changes in land use, such as deforestation and agricultural expansion, can alter the habitats of disease vectors and hosts, affecting disease transmission patterns9. Additionally, human migration, driven by environmental changes, can shift disease patterns and strain public health infrastructure, making populations more vulnerable to outbreaks2 9.
Conclusion: Adapting to a Changing Climate
The effects of global warming on infectious diseases are multifaceted and vary by region and disease type. While some diseases may expand their range and increase in prevalence, others may decline due to changing environmental conditions. Effective adaptation measures, including improved surveillance, vector control, and public health infrastructure, are crucial to mitigate the impact of climate change on infectious diseases. Further research is needed to understand the complex interactions between climate change and disease dynamics and to develop strategies for prevention and control.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Climate change and infectious diseases
Climate change may increase the frequency and severity of emerging infectious diseases, with warm El Nio Southern Oscillations linked to higher risks of diseases like Rift Valley fever, cholera, and malaria.
Rigorous Journal
Highly CitedGlobal warming and infectious disease.
Global warming will cause changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases, with potential consequences for human migration, crop failures, and disease transmission through water scarcity and political stresses.
Highly CitedThe Effect of Global Warming on Infectious Diseases
Global warming indirectly affects infectious diseases, with water- and foodborne diseases and vector-borne diseases being most affected, and adaptation measures are crucial for human health.
Highly CitedClimate change alters disease risks
Climate change alters disease risks, with fungal disease risk increasing in warm climates and bacterial disease prevalence increasing in cool climates, with warming benefiting helminths more than other parasites.
Meta-AnalysisGlobal climate change and infectious diseases.
Global warming may increase the spread of dengue and yellow fever viruses, potentially leading to epidemics in North America, while other diseases may become less prominent due to habitat modification.
Highly CitedEpidemics on the move: Climate change and infectious disease
Climate change may lead to a "two-tailed" response, with some infectious diseases adapting and increasing prevalence, while others may suffer negative consequences leading to range contractions and local extinctions.
Rigorous JournalGlobal climate change and infectious diseases.
Climate change may influence the emergence and spread of infectious diseases, but the extent of its influence remains uncertain.
Highly CitedThe rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world
Climate change may not drive widespread infectious disease expansion, but it may affect disease transmission through host susceptibility, infective stage production, longevity, and pathology.
Highly CitedImpact of global change on transmission of human infectious diseases
Global change, including climate change and anthropogenic activities, significantly impacts the outbreak and transmission of human infectious diseases.
Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence?
Global warming contributes to the variability of viral diseases, but its impact on emergence and re-emergence is influenced more by factors such as ocean/atmosphere circulations and global change.
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