When does the weather start getting warmer
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When Does the Weather Start Getting Warmer?
Understanding the timing and patterns of seasonal warming is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, energy, and public health. This article synthesizes recent research to provide insights into when the weather typically starts getting warmer, with a focus on different regions and the factors influencing these changes.
Seasonal Warming Trends in Europe
Historical and Recent Warming Patterns
Research indicates that Europe has experienced significant warming over the past 150 years, with a notable increase in the occurrence of heatwaves1. The late 20th and early 21st centuries have been warmer than any period in the past 500 years, with the hottest summer recorded in 20035. This trend is consistent with the broader Northern Hemisphere, where each decade since the 1960s has been warmer than the previous one4.
Spring and Summer Warming
The summer of 2018 exemplifies the recent trend of extreme heat and drought in Europe, starting with warmer-than-average conditions in spring and peaking in mid to late summer3. This pattern suggests that the warming process begins in spring, leading to significant heatwaves by mid-summer. The increased temperature variability, alongside a general rise in mean temperatures, contributes to these extreme events1 3.
Enhanced Warming in Semi-Arid Regions
Cold-Season Warming
In semi-arid regions, particularly in mid-latitude areas of Europe, Asia, and North America, there has been an enhanced warming trend during the boreal cold season (November to March)2. This period has seen temperature increases significantly higher than the global annual mean, indicating that warming starts earlier in these regions compared to others.
Implications for Seasonal Transitions
The enhanced warming during the cold season in semi-arid regions suggests that these areas may experience an earlier onset of warmer weather. This trend could lead to earlier springs and extended warm periods, impacting local ecosystems and agricultural cycles2.
Global Warming and Weather Variability
Internal Climate Variability
While the overall trend shows a warming climate, internal climate variability can temporarily mask these trends. For instance, the so-called "hiatus" period from 1998 to 2013 saw a reduced increase in global mean surface temperature, despite the long-term warming trend4. This variability means that while the general pattern is towards earlier and more intense warming, specific years may deviate from this trend.
Future Projections
Climate models project that in a world 2°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, summer weather will become more persistent, with longer periods of heat and drought10. This persistence suggests that once the weather starts getting warmer, it is likely to stay warm for extended periods, exacerbating the effects of heatwaves and droughts.
Conclusion
The weather starts getting warmer in different regions at varying times, influenced by historical trends, regional characteristics, and internal climate variability. In Europe, warming typically begins in spring, leading to significant heatwaves by mid-summer. Semi-arid regions experience enhanced cold-season warming, suggesting an earlier onset of warmer weather. Despite short-term variability, the long-term trend points towards earlier and more persistent warming, driven by global climate change. Understanding these patterns is essential for preparing and adapting to the impacts of a warming climate.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
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Has there been a hiatus?
The hiatus in global mean surface temperature from 1998 to 2013 was due to weather-related and internal natural climate variability, which can temporarily overshadow global warming in some areas.
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