When does weather get warmer
Pro Research Analysisby 
Searched over 200M research papers
When Does Weather Get Warmer?
Understanding the patterns and timing of warming weather is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, water management, and urban planning. This article synthesizes research findings on the warming trends and their implications.
Historical and Recent Warming Trends
Long-Term Climate Records
Historical climate records indicate significant warming trends over the past millennium. For instance, a study of varved lake sediments in the North-western Alps reveals pronounced warm season phases at various intervals, including AD 920-950, AD 1100-1180, and AD 1960-20081. These records show that while there is variability, recent decades have been among the warmest in the past 1000 years5.
20th and 21st Century Trends
The late 20th and early 21st centuries have experienced unprecedented warming. Every decade since the 1960s has been warmer than the previous one, with the 2000s being the warmest decade on record until then2. This trend has continued, with 2014 and 2015 setting new records for global temperatures2. In Europe, the late 20th and early 21st centuries are very likely warmer than any period in the past 500 years3.
Seasonal Warming Patterns
Winter and Summer Variability
Seasonal patterns of warming show distinct trends. Winters in the Northern Hemisphere, including Europe, have become warmer and less variable4. Conversely, summer temperatures have shown increased variability, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves6. The summer of 2003 in Europe, for example, was an extreme event that current climate models struggle to fully explain without considering increased temperature variability6.
Regional Discrepancies
Regional studies, such as those focusing on China, indicate that warming trends can vary significantly by location. Southeastern China, for instance, is projected to experience a decrease in mild weather during summer, despite an overall warming trend9. This highlights the complexity of regional climate responses to global warming.
Implications of Warming Trends
Extreme Weather Events
The increase in global temperatures is linked to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. The summer of 2018 in Europe was marked by simultaneous heat and drought extremes, significantly impacting agriculture and water supply7. Such events are expected to become more common with continued global warming, necessitating robust adaptation and mitigation strategies7.
Public Perception and Behavior
Interestingly, public attention to climate change tends to increase during periods of abnormally high local temperatures. This heightened awareness can influence behaviors, such as the financial decisions of retail investors who tend to sell stocks of carbon-intensive firms during warm weather8.
Conclusion
The weather is getting warmer, with significant seasonal and regional variations. Historical records and recent data both confirm a trend towards higher temperatures, particularly in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. This warming is associated with increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which have profound implications for various sectors and public perception. Understanding these patterns is essential for developing effective strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
A millennial-long record of warm season precipitation and flood frequency for the North-western Alps inferred from varved lake sediments: implications for the future
Warm-season precipitation in the North-western Alps has fluctuated between wetter and drier periods over the last millennium, with potential implications for future precipitation scenarios in the Alpine area under future warming.
Has there been a hiatus?
The hiatus in global mean surface temperature from 1998 to 2013 was due to weather-related and internal natural climate variability, which can temporarily overshadow global warming in some areas.
Highly CitedEuropean Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500
The late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is likely warmer than any time in the past 500 years, with winter temperatures reduced by 0.5°C and summer temperatures not experiencing systematic century-scale cooling.
Highly CitedWinter isn’t what it used to be
Northern autumns and winters are getting warmer, and their weather is also getting blander. Observations and climate model simulations reveal that human activities have managed to make today’s weather measurably different than it was only a generation ago.
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
Increasing temperature variability may explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, as it is statistically extremely unlikely for such events to occur with current warming trends.
Highly CitedThe extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
The 2018 extreme summer in central and northern Europe was influenced by both heat and drought, with anthropogenic global warming increasing the likelihood of such events.
Attention to Global Warming
People revise their beliefs about climate change when experiencing warmer temperatures, and carbon-intensive firms underperform in financial markets during abnormally warm weather.
Highly Cited