When will the earth die from global warming
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When Will the Earth Die from Global Warming?
Planetary Thresholds and Hothouse Earth Pathway
The concept of a "Hothouse Earth" pathway suggests that self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms could push the Earth System toward a critical planetary threshold. If this threshold is crossed, it could prevent the stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises, leading to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial period in the past 1.2 million years. This scenario would also result in significantly higher sea levels than those recorded during the Holocene epoch. The potential crossing of this threshold could cause severe disruptions to ecosystems, societies, and economies, necessitating collective human action to steer the Earth System away from this potential threshold. Such actions include decarbonizing the global economy, enhancing biosphere carbon sinks, and implementing new governance arrangements and social values1.
Soil Carbon Loss and Positive Feedback Loops
The Earth's terrestrial carbon, primarily stored in the soil, plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Anthropogenic warming can stimulate the loss of this soil carbon to the atmosphere, potentially driving further planetary warming. Research indicates that the effects of warming on soil carbon stocks are contingent on the initial size of these stocks, with significant losses occurring in high-latitude areas. Under a business-as-usual climate scenario, it is estimated that by 2050, around 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon could be lost from the upper soil horizons. This loss represents approximately 12-17% of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite uncertainties, the direction of the global soil carbon response to rising temperatures is consistent, supporting the idea that increased temperatures will stimulate a net loss of soil carbon, thereby accelerating climate change through a positive land carbon-climate feedback loop2.
Conclusion
The Earth faces significant risks from global warming, with potential pathways leading to a "Hothouse Earth" scenario and substantial soil carbon losses that could accelerate climate change. While the exact timeline for when the Earth might reach a critical point remains uncertain, the evidence underscores the urgent need for collective human action to mitigate these risks. Decarbonizing the economy, enhancing carbon sinks, and transforming societal values and governance structures are essential steps to stabilize the Earth's climate and prevent catastrophic outcomes.
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Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
Crossing a planetary threshold could lead to a "Hothouse Earth" trajectory, causing severe disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies, requiring collective human action to stabilize the Earth in a habitable interglacial-like state.
Highly CitedQuantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming
Rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, potentially accelerating climate change.
Rigorous JournalHighly CitedMechanisms of climate warming at the end of the paleocene
Degassing of biogenic methane hydrate may have significantly contributed to global warming at the end of the Paleocene epoch, with multiple injections occurring over time.
Highly CitedFundamental Concepts of Human Thermoregulation and Adaptation to Heat: A Review in the Context of Global Warming
Human thermoregulation can be enhanced by behavioral adaptations and technological innovations, such as sub-nocturnal sleep patterns and targeted body surface cooling, to adapt to global warming.
Systematic ReviewRigorous JournalGlobal warming transforms coral reef assemblages
Global warming, driven by the 2016 Great Barrier Reef heatwave, has driven a regional-scale shift in coral assemblage composition, transforming the ecological functioning of 29% of the world's largest coral reef system.
Rigorous JournalHighly CitedReconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’
The 'global warming hiatus' is caused by different definitions and datasets, and human influence is dominant in long-term warming, reconciling models and data.
Very Rigorous JournalHighly CitedGlobal warming threatens human thermoregulation and survival.
Global warming disrupts human thermoregulation, threatening health and survival.
Rigorous JournalGreater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget
Observationally informed global warming projections are about 15% warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) than raw model projections, suggesting steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions are needed to achieve global temperature stabilization targets.
Very Rigorous JournalHighly CitedPopulation Growth and Global Warming
Burning fossil fuels contributes significantly to global warming, with the potential for severe consequences if emissions continue unabated.
Highly CitedAn apparent hiatus in global warming?
Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways, with sea-level rise being more relentless.
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