When will the temp drop
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Predicting Temperature Drops: Insights from Recent Research
Unsuccessful Temperature Drop Forecasts
Forecasting sharp temperature drops can be challenging, as evidenced by a case study from April 2006. In this instance, forecasters failed to predict a significant temperature drop of more than 20°C at 82 stations in Guangxi, China. The primary reasons for this forecasting failure were identified as a stronger-than-normal polar vortex, the development of a southwest warm vortex, and errors in numerical weather prediction models1. This highlights the complexity and potential inaccuracies in predicting sudden temperature changes.
Temperature Drops and Asthma Risk
Temperature drops have been linked to an increased risk of asthma, particularly in children and low-latitude areas. A systematic review and meta-analysis of 26 studies involving over 26 million subjects found that each 1°C decrease in short-term temperature was associated with a 5.5% increase in asthma risk. The risk was notably higher in winter and in regions with lower latitudes2. These findings suggest that preventive measures, such as wearing face masks, could mitigate the adverse effects of temperature drops on respiratory health.
Historical Sea Surface Temperature Drops
An abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures around 1970 provides another example of significant temperature changes. This drop, approximately 0.3°C between 1968 and 1972, was not linked to known biases in surface temperature measurements or changes in metadata. It is believed to be a result of complex interactions between greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols, and multidecadal climate variability3. This historical event underscores the importance of understanding both natural and anthropogenic factors in temperature fluctuations.
Seasonal Low Temperature Occurrences
In regions like Florida and the Gulf Coast States, traditional methods of predicting the first and last occurrences of low temperatures during the cold season have proven ineffective. A proposed solution is to define a "cold season" from July 1 to June 30 and use this period to construct data series for predicting low temperature events. This approach aims to improve the accuracy of climatological probability forecasts by fitting the data to a normal distribution4. This method could provide more reliable predictions for the timing of low temperature occurrences in these regions.
Conclusion
Predicting temperature drops involves understanding a complex interplay of atmospheric conditions, historical data, and regional variations. While forecasting models continue to improve, challenges remain, particularly in accurately predicting sharp temperature decreases and their health impacts. Ongoing research and innovative approaches are essential for enhancing our ability to forecast and mitigate the effects of temperature drops.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Analysis of Unsuccessful Forecasting for a Sharp Decrease of Temperature
The unsuccessful forecast for a sharp decrease in temperature from 12 to 13 April 2006 was mainly due to a stronger polar vortex, southwest warm vortex developing, and numerical weather product errors.
Temperature drop and the risk of asthma: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Temperature drops have a negative impact on asthma risk, particularly in children and low-latitude areas.
Meta-AnalysisAn abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature around 1970
A rapid drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures of about 0.3°C between 1968 and 1972 contributed to the hemispheric differences in temperature trends during the middle of the twentieth century.
Highly CitedFIRST AND LAST OCCURRENCES OF LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE COLD SEASON
A single "cold season" from July 1 to June 30 can efficiently assign climatological probabilities to first and last cold season events, improving data analysis in the Southeastern Atlantic States.
Enhanced Peltier cooling of two-stage thermoelectric cooler via pulse currents
Two-stage thermoelectric coolers with pulse currents can achieve lower cold end temperatures and longer holding times of supercooling state compared to single-stage counterparts.
Abrupt equatorial wave‐induced cooling of the Atlantic cold tongue in 2009
The sudden cooling of the eastern equatorial Atlantic in 2009 was caused by anomalous meridional gradient of sea surface temperatures and northwesterly winds, leading to upwelling Kelvin waves and a 5°C decrease in sea surface temperatures.
The Nature and Predictability of the East Asian Extreme Cold Events of 2020/21
The third extreme cold event in 2020/21 had the highest predictability, with the first two events linked to polar vortex movements and the third event linked to Asian blocking.
Association between Temperature Change and Outpatient Visits for Respiratory Tract Infections among Children in Guangzhou, China
Extreme temperature decreases significantly increase pediatric outpatient visits for respiratory tract infections in Guangzhou, China, with children aged 0-2 years and those aged 1 year being particularly vulnerable.
Observational Study
Rigorous JournalSeasonal and regional temperature changes in China over the 50 year period 1951–2000
China experienced significant temperature rises in 53.1% of annual mean temperatures, 51.9% of winter temperatures, and 13.8% of summer temperatures from 1951 to 2000, with abrupt changes in the 1970s linked to the subtropical high in South China Sea and various factors.
A Large Change in Temperature between Neighbouring Days Increases the Risk of Mortality
A significant temperature change of more than 3°C, positive or negative, significantly increases the risk of mortality, even after controlling for current temperature.
Observational StudyHighly Cited