Acceleration of climate change
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Acceleration of Climate Change: Key Insights and Implications
Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks and Global Warming
The acceleration of climate change is significantly influenced by carbon-cycle feedbacks. Research using a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model indicates that these feedbacks could substantially speed up climate change throughout the 21st century. Under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere, which currently acts as a carbon sink, is projected to become a carbon source by 2050. By 2100, this shift could result in atmospheric CO2 concentrations being 250 ppm higher than in models that do not account for carbon-cycle feedbacks, leading to a global-mean warming of 5.5 K compared to 4 K without these feedbacks1.
Ocean Warming and Energy Imbalance
The oceans play a critical role in the Earth's climate system, absorbing about 93% of the energy imbalance caused by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Observational records show that ocean warming is accelerating, contributing to increased rainfall intensity, rising sea levels, and the decline of ice sheets and coral reefs. This rapid warming aligns with model projections, indicating that current models reliably predict changes in ocean heat content (OHC)5.
Permafrost Carbon Feedback
Permafrost regions store large amounts of organic carbon, which, when thawed due to warming, can be broken down by microbes, releasing greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback mechanism can further accelerate climate change. However, the magnitude and timing of these emissions remain uncertain, necessitating further research to understand permafrost carbon dynamics better6.
Forest Dynamics and Biodiversity
Climate change is accelerating forest dynamics, particularly in mountain regions like the Alps. Over the past few decades, forests have become denser, more structurally complex, and richer in species. This acceleration is driven by increasing temperatures and legacy effects from past disturbances. While unmanaged forest development towards old-growth conditions could counteract some climate-mediated changes, the overall trend points to significant shifts in forest ecosystems with broad implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services3.
Low-Carbon Transitions and Policy
Meeting the climate targets set by the Paris Agreement requires a rapid acceleration of low-carbon transitions. This involves understanding the politics of deliberate acceleration, including the roles of coalitions, policy feedbacks, and broader socio-political contexts. Effective acceleration strategies must consider these factors to create favorable conditions for low-carbon transitions4.
Implications for Food Security and Disease
Accelerated climate change impacts crop yields and food security by altering complex biological interactions and increasing the prevalence of diseases. These changes are challenging to predict and model due to their multifaceted nature. Integrated modeling and multi-factorial experimentation are essential to prioritize breeding objectives and enhance resilience to climate change8.
Alternative Scenarios and Mitigation
An alternative view suggests that the rapid warming observed in recent decades is primarily driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases like methane and chlorofluorocarbons. Reducing emissions of these gases, along with black carbon, could potentially slow the rate of global warming. This approach highlights the importance of targeted air pollution control measures that benefit both developed and developing countries9.
Conclusion
The acceleration of climate change is a multifaceted issue influenced by various feedback mechanisms, including carbon-cycle feedbacks, ocean warming, and permafrost carbon release. Addressing this acceleration requires comprehensive strategies that integrate scientific research, policy-making, and socio-technical transitions. By understanding and mitigating these feedbacks, we can better manage the impacts of climate change and work towards a more sustainable future.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model
Carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate global warming by balancing ocean uptake and terrestrial carbon sources by 2100, leading to a global warming of 5.5 K compared to 4 K without feedback.
Highly CitedAccelerating Global Climate Change
Climate change is accelerating, and preserving our anthropocene world is crucial for preserving species and our planet.
PreprintAccelerating Mountain Forest Dynamics in the Alps
Mountain forests in the Alps are becoming denser, more complex, and more species rich, driven by legacies and climate change, with unmanaged development towards old-growth conditions potentially counteracting climate-mediated acceleration.
Observational StudyThe politics of accelerating low-carbon transitions: Towards a new research agenda
This paper explores the politics of accelerating low-carbon transitions, focusing on coalitions, feedbacks, and broader contexts to better understand the political dynamics of climate change mitigation.
Highly CitedHow fast are the oceans warming?
Ocean warming is rapidly accelerating, contributing to increased rainfall intensity, rising sea levels, coral reef destruction, declining ocean oxygen levels, and declining ice sheets and glaciers.
Highly CitedClimate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
Permafrost carbon feedback in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions may cause gradual and prolonged greenhouse gas emissions, potentially accelerating climate change.
Highly CitedAre rapid and inclusive energy and climate transitions oxymorons? Towards principles of responsible acceleration
Responsible acceleration of climate and energy transitions requires a broad epistemic basis, polycentrism, and polytemporal strategies to address tensions and paradoxes.
Implications of climate change for diseases, crop yields and food security
Climate change impacts crop yield and quality, and enhancing resilience to its effects is crucial for food security and sustainability.
Highly CitedGlobal warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario.
Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases could lead to a decline in global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change.
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