Average annual temperature in the United States
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Average Annual Temperature in the United States: Historical Trends and Recent Data
Historical Average Annual Temperature Data
The average annual temperature in the contiguous United States has shown a clear warming trend over the past century. For the climatological period from 1971 to 2000, spatially gridded data sets provide detailed average monthly and annual maximum temperatures, serving as a baseline for understanding long-term climate patterns in the U.S. .
Recent Increases in U.S. Average Temperatures
From 1981 to 2010, the United States experienced an average temperature about 0.5°F warmer than the previous 30-year period (1971–2000), with both maximum and minimum annual temperatures increasing across all states . Comparing longer periods, the average annual temperature over the contiguous U.S. increased by 1.2°F (0.7°C) from 1986–2016 relative to 1901–1960, and by 1.8°F (1.0°C) from 1895–2016 24. These findings are consistent across surface and satellite data, and recent decades are considered the warmest in the past 1,500 years .
Regional and Seasonal Variations
Temperature increases are not uniform across the country. In the Southwest U.S., for example, 75% of weather stations recorded an increase in annual maximum temperature at rates between 0.6°C and 3.1°C per century, and minimum temperatures also rose at most stations . In the Northeast, climate models show that temperature increases are largest in midwinter and late summer, with a weak seasonality in temperature changes .
Projected Future Changes in U.S. Temperatures
Looking ahead, average annual temperatures in the U.S. are projected to rise by about 2.5°F (1.4°C) in the next few decades under all emissions scenarios, making recent record-setting years more common 24. By the end of the century, increases could range from 2.8°F to 7.3°F (1.6°C to 4.1°C) under a lower emissions scenario, and from 5.8°F to 11.9°F (3.2°C to 6.6°C) under a higher emissions scenario 2410. The most pronounced warming is expected in northern latitudes and regions that currently receive snow .
Impacts of Rising Temperatures
The increase in average annual temperature has led to more frequent heat waves and fewer cold waves, with the number of high temperature records far exceeding low temperature records in recent decades . These temperature changes have significant impacts on economic productivity, with studies showing that daily average temperatures above 15°C (59°F) can reduce productivity, especially in sectors like agriculture .
Conclusion
The average annual temperature in the United States has risen significantly over the past century, with the most recent decades being the warmest on record. This warming trend is expected to continue, with future increases largely dependent on greenhouse gas emissions. Regional and seasonal variations exist, but the overall pattern is one of consistent warming, with important implications for weather extremes, agriculture, and economic productivity 12347810.
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