Climate change risk
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Understanding Climate Change Risk: A Comprehensive Overview
Public Perceptions of Climate Change Risk
American Risk Perceptions of Climate Change
Public perceptions of climate change risk significantly influence political, economic, and social actions. A national study in 2003 revealed that Americans generally perceive climate change as a moderate risk, primarily affecting distant people and places. The study identified distinct interpretive communities, such as naysayers and alarmists, indicating a broad spectrum of risk perceptions among the public1.
Social-Psychological Determinants of Risk Perception
A detailed social-psychological model tested on a UK sample highlighted that gender, political affiliation, knowledge about climate change, social norms, value orientations, affect, and personal experiences with extreme weather significantly predict climate change risk perceptions. Experiential and socio-cultural factors were found to be more influential than cognitive or socio-demographic characteristics7.
Climate Change Risks in Global Supply Chains
Impact on Supply Chains
Climate change poses significant risks to global supply chains, particularly through extreme weather conditions that affect food production, natural resources, and transportation. These impacts cascade through interconnected sectors, such as food, mining, and logistics, creating a complex web of vulnerabilities. A systems theory-driven framework has been proposed to manage these risks effectively2.
Quantifying Global Climate Risk
IPCC Risk Assessments
Recent IPCC reports provide a comprehensive understanding of global climate risks. A scoring system translating qualitative IPCC assessments into risk scores indicates that global climate risk will increase substantially by the end of the century, with higher greenhouse gas emissions leading to greater risks. Societal adaptation can mitigate these risks but cannot entirely prevent them3.
Regional Differences in Climate Impact
In China, quantitative assessments under future climate scenarios show that severe heat waves, droughts, and floods will intensify, particularly under higher warming scenarios. Economic losses and affected populations are expected to increase significantly, with high-risk areas expanding geographically8.
Health Risks Due to Climate Change
Present and Future Health Risks
Climate change is linked to a range of adverse health outcomes, including injuries, illnesses, and deaths from extreme weather events, infectious diseases, and food and water insecurity. These health risks are unevenly distributed, exacerbating existing inequities. Effective health system responses are crucial to managing these risks5 9.
Systemic and Complex Climate Change Risks
Systemic Risk Dynamics
Systemic risks induced by climate change arise from the interconnectedness of various socioeconomic systems and the dynamic evolution of exposure and vulnerability. These risks are characterized by cascading effects, where the impact of one risk can trigger a series of other risks. Understanding these dynamics is essential for developing effective mitigation strategies6.
Framework for Complex Risk Assessment
A holistic framework for assessing complex climate change risks emphasizes the interactions among multiple risk drivers and the compounding nature of these risks. This approach integrates physical and socio-economic factors, encouraging cross-sectoral and regional thinking to inform better decision-making and reduce negative impacts10.
Conclusion
Climate change risk is multifaceted, affecting public perceptions, global supply chains, health outcomes, and systemic stability. Effective risk management requires a comprehensive understanding of these diverse impacts and the development of integrated frameworks to address them. By considering both the direct and indirect effects of climate change, policymakers and stakeholders can better prepare for and mitigate the associated risks.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?
Americans perceive climate change as a moderate risk primarily impacting distant places, with diverse perceptions among naysayers and alarmists.
Highly CitedManaging climate change risks in global supply chains: a review and research agenda
Climate change significantly impacts global supply chains, requiring a systems-theoretical framework to manage climate change risks and mitigate its impact on food, mining, and logistics sectors.
Systematic ReviewHighly CitedEstimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
By the end of this century, global climate risk will increase substantially with greenhouse gas emissions, with societal adaptation potentially reducing risk by half under all scenarios.
Highly CitedClimate change risk – what is it and how should it be expressed?
Current approaches to describing climate change risk are inadequate, leading to poor communication and misguided decision-making.
Climate change and human health: present and future risks
Climate change will negatively impact human health, primarily through thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, but also through social, demographic, and economic disruptions.
Literature Review
Very Rigorous JournalHighly CitedUnderstanding systemic risk induced by climate change
Systemic risk induced by climate change is a holistic risk resulting from the interconnection, interaction, and dynamic evolution of various single risks, with cascading effects.
The social-psychological determinants of climate change risk perceptions: Towards a comprehensive model
The climate change risk perception model identifies gender, political party, knowledge, social norms, and personal experience with extreme weather as significant predictors, with experiential and socio-cultural factors explaining more variance than cognitive or socio-demographic factors.
Observational StudyHighly CitedIntegrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C.
China faces intensified extreme events, increased economic losses, and increased population affected by severe floods under 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios.
Health Risks Due To Climate Change: Inequity In Causes And Consequences.
Climate change is increasing health risks, causing more injuries, illnesses, and deaths, with uneven distribution and exacerbate existing inequities.
Highly CitedA framework for complex climate change risk assessment
A comprehensive framework for assessing complex climate change risks, considering both impacts and responses, is essential for informed decision-making and reducing negative impacts.
Highly Cited