Co2 emissions by country
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CO2 Emissions by Country: A Comprehensive Analysis
China: The Leading CO2 Emitter
China is the world's largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter, contributing to 30% of global emissions. Despite the lack of officially published annual emissions data, various academic estimates indicate significant discrepancies, with differences comparable to the total emissions of the Russian Federation in 2011. A detailed time-series of CO2 emission inventories for China and its provinces from 1997 to 2015 has been constructed, covering energy-related and process-related emissions1.
Top Ten Emitting Countries: Key Drivers and Projections
The top ten CO2 emitting countries include China, the United States, India, the Russian Federation, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Iran, Canada, and Saudi Arabia. The primary drivers of CO2 emissions in these countries are population growth and per capita income. There is a strong correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI), economic growth, and sector-specific CO2 emissions. Projections indicate an increase in CO2 emissions across all these countries by 2030, necessitating robust policy interventions to mitigate emissions2.
Developed Economies: Trends in Emission Reductions
Between 2005 and 2015, 18 developed economies experienced a decline in CO2 emissions. This reduction is attributed to the displacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy and a decrease in energy use, partly due to slower GDP growth. Policies promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency have been effective in these countries, highlighting the need for continued and enhanced policy actions to achieve global emission reduction goals3.
Global and National Emission Drivers (2000-2017)
From 2000 to 2017, global CO2 emissions were primarily driven by economic development and population growth, while mitigation efforts were mainly due to improvements in energy intensity. The five regions most responsible for changes in global emissions are China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Russia. Notably, CO2 emissions decreased in 62% of developed countries but increased in 88% of developing countries during this period4.
Developing World: Emission Peaks and Future Prospects
The trajectory of future global CO2 emissions will largely depend on the developing world, particularly China and India. China is expected to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030, with a possibility of an earlier peak between 2020 and 2030. In contrast, India is likely to see sustained emissions growth for decades, potentially peaking by 2040 under stringent global warming constraints. Rapid transitions towards low-carbon development are crucial for these countries5.
European Union: Historical Emission Trends
From 1960 to 2018, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the EU member states showed significant variation. While some countries like Cyprus, Portugal, Greece, and Spain saw substantial increases, others like Germany, Luxembourg, Sweden, and the United Kingdom managed to reduce their emissions to below 1960 levels. The EU's energy intensity decreased by 37% between 1990 and 2017, reflecting improvements in energy efficiency6.
Consumption-Based Emissions Accounting
Traditional CO2 emission inventories focus on production-based emissions, but consumption-based accounting reveals that a significant portion of emissions is associated with the consumption of imported goods and services. In 2004, 23% of global CO2 emissions were traded internationally, with China exporting a substantial amount of its emissions to developed countries. This highlights the potential for international carbon leakage and the need for shared responsibility in global climate policy7.
Transport Sector Emissions in Top Economies
The transport sector is a major contributor to global CO2 emissions. From 2000 to 2015, transport emissions increased in the United States, China, India, Canada, Russia, and Brazil, while Japan saw a decrease. The main drivers of emission increases were economic output and electricity structure, whereas reductions were primarily due to improvements in carbon intensity. Effective policies and regulations are essential to reduce transport sector emissions8.
Near-Real-Time CO2 Emission Monitoring
The Carbon Monitor provides a near-real-time daily dataset of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production since January 2019. This dataset reveals an 8.8% decline in global CO2 emissions from January to June 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, mainly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, emissions began to rebound by late April 2020, driven by economic recovery in China and partial easing of lockdowns in other countries9.
Urbanization and Economic Growth in Far East Asia
In Far East Asian countries, urbanization, economic growth, and trade openness significantly influence CO2 emissions. Policies promoting green and sustainable urbanization, strategic industrial regulation, and increased use of renewable energy are recommended to mitigate emissions while supporting economic progress10.
Conclusion
CO2 emissions vary significantly across countries and regions, driven by factors such as population growth, economic development, energy intensity, and carbon intensity. While developed economies have made strides in reducing emissions, developing countries face challenges in balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. Effective policies, international cooperation, and innovative approaches are essential to achieve global emission reduction targets and combat climate change.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015
China's CO2 emissions from 1997 to 2015 are underestimated due to discrepancies in estimates, highlighting the need for accurate data for emissions reduction policy-making.
Observational Study
Highly CitedDriving factors of CO2 emissions and nexus with economic growth, development and human health in the Top Ten emitting countries
CO2 emissions in the top 10 countries are driven by population, income, and human development index, with a strong relationship between CO2 emissions and healthy life expectancy.
Highly CitedDrivers of declining CO2 emissions in 18 developed economies
Displacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy and decreases in energy use are driving CO2 emissions declines in 18 developed economies between 2005 and 2015.
Highly CitedDrivers of global and national CO2 emissions changes 2000–2017
Improving energy intensity and carbon intensity is the key to mitigating CO2 emissions, with income and population being the main drivers of increased emissions from 2000-2017.
Research on the peak of CO2 emissions in the developing world: Current progress and future prospect
China is likely to peak CO2 emissions by 2030, while India may experience sustained emissions growth for decades, with a possible peak by 2040, but high costs may prevent rapid transition to low-carbon sustainable development.
Literature ReviewHighly CitedTrends of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels combustion (coal, gas and oil) in the EU member states from 1960 to 2018
EU's energy intensity decreased by 37% between 1990 and 2017, with Cyprus, Portugal, Greece, and Spain recording the highest increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion.
Highly CitedConsumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions
Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions reveals that 23% of global emissions were traded internationally in 2004, primarily as exports from China and emerging markets to consumers in developed countries.
Highly CitedCO2 emissions patterns in 7 top carbon emitter economies: The case of transport sector
Transport carbon emissions increased in the US, China, India, Canada, Russia, and Brazil during 2000-15, while decreasing in Japan, with electricity structure and economic output being key drivers.
Literature ReviewHighly CitedCarbon Monitor, a near-real-time daily dataset of global CO2 emission from fossil fuel and cement production
The Carbon Monitor dataset shows a 8.8% decline in CO2 emissions globally from January 1st to June 30th 2020, with a regrowth in emissions by late April, mainly due to the recovery of economic activities in China and partial easing of lockdowns in other countries.
Highly CitedImpact of Urbanization and Economic Growth on CO2 Emission: A Case of Far East Asian Countries
Urbanization, economic growth, and trade openness significantly contribute to CO2 emissions in Far East Asian countries.
Observational Study
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