global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system

Introduction

The development and implementation of global eddy-resolving ocean forecast systems have significantly advanced our understanding and predictive capabilities of ocean dynamics. These systems, characterized by their high spatial resolution, are crucial for accurately simulating and forecasting mesoscale oceanic features such as eddies, currents, and sea surface height variability.

Key Insights

Model Performance and Realism:
- Eddy-resolving models generally show improved performance in representing ocean dynamics, including upper ocean characteristics, sea ice properties, and mass transports through key straits, compared to eddy-permitting models .
- These models exhibit realistic variability in sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomaly (SLA), and mixed layer depth (MLD), although some systematic errors, such as deeper than observed MLD, are noted.
Data Assimilation and Predictive Skill:
- The assimilation of satellite data (e.g., sea surface height from TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2, and Geosat-Follow-On) and sea surface temperature (SST) significantly enhances the predictive skill of these models, allowing for accurate nowcasts and forecasts of mesoscale variability for at least one month .
- Optimum interpolation (OI) schemes and statistical inference techniques are commonly used for data assimilation, ensuring computational efficiency and reducing errors in model predictions .
Resolution and Computational Requirements:
- High-resolution models (e.g., 1/16°, 1/10°, 1/32°) require substantial computational resources but provide more accurate simulations of ocean circulation, heat transport, and eddy kinetic energy .
- The use of advanced numerical methods and parallel computing is essential to handle the large model grids and operational demands of these systems .
Applications and Future Directions:
- Eddy-resolving models are crucial for climate studies, short-range ocean forecasting, and understanding decadal changes in ocean circulation, such as the strengthening of subtropical gyres and variability in heat transport .
- Continuous improvements in model physics, surface forcing, and parameterizations of eddy effects are necessary to further enhance the accuracy and reliability of these systems .

Conclusion

Global eddy-resolving ocean forecast systems represent a significant advancement in ocean modeling, providing detailed and accurate simulations of ocean dynamics. These models, through high-resolution grids and sophisticated data assimilation techniques, offer valuable insights into mesoscale variability and are essential tools for both operational forecasting and climate studies. Despite their computational demands, the benefits of improved predictive skill and realism make them indispensable for advancing our understanding of the global ocean.

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Global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system

Summary

Introduction

Key Insights

Conclusion

Sources and full results

An operational Eddy resolving 1/16° global ocean nowcast/forecast system

The first real-time eddy resolving global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been successfully operating since 2000, providing accurate 30-day forecasts for mesoscale and other types of variability.

A 1/16° eddying simulation of the global NEMO sea-ice–ocean system

The NEMO general circulation model effectively represents upper ocean dynamics and variability at global scales, with improvements in mass and heat transports, fluxes through narrow and shallow straits, and increased global-mean eddy kinetic energy.

Evaluation of a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model

The new near-global eddy-resolving ocean model shows realistic variability and potential for better understanding upper ocean dynamics and variability at mid- and low latitudes.

Using a resolution function to regulate parameterizations of oceanic mesoscale eddy effects

A resolution function can help regulate oceanic mesoscale eddy effects in models, allowing for more accurate representation of eddies and suppressing resolved ones.

Recent changes in the North Atlantic circulation simulated with eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving ocean models

Eddy-resolving ocean models provide more accurate representation of recent changes in mid-latitude heat transport in the North Atlantic compared to eddy-permitting models.

A near-global eddy-resolving OGCM for climate studies

The Ocean Forecasting Australia Model 3 (OFAM3) provides a near-global eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model for climate studies, with no significant model drift and a consistent global ocean circulation simulation from 1979 to 2014.

Global Ocean Prediction System

The Global Ocean Prediction System (GOPS) is a fully eddy-resolving global ocean prediction system, incorporating basin-scale systems and progressively increasing resolution, using satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature, and in-situ data.

An eddy resolving global 1/10° ocean simulation

The global 1/10° ocean simulation shows extremely turbulent behavior, with good agreement with satellite altimetry in most high-activity areas, but significant problems in the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current region.

Eddy-resolving 1/10° model of the World Ocean

The developed 1/10° eddy-resolving model of the World Ocean effectively simulates intra-annual variability in ocean circulation, providing a significant first step in developing this model for global ocean research.

An operational real-time eddy-resolving 1/16/spl deg/ global ocean nowcast/forecast system

The real-time eddy-resolving global ocean nowcast/forecast system, using the NRL Layered Ocean Model and satellite data, effectively predicts mesoscale variability for at least one month.

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