Global temperature records by month
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Global Monthly Temperature Records: Trends and Extremes
Record-Breaking Monthly Temperatures and Recent Trends
Global temperature records by month have shown a dramatic increase in recent years. In 2023, every month from June to December set new global temperature records, with July and August being the hottest months ever recorded. The annual global temperature anomaly for 2023 reached 1.45 ± 0.12°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the previous record set in 2016 by 0.17°C. This period also saw record-breaking sea surface temperatures for every month from April to December 2023, and Antarctic sea ice reached record lows throughout the year Gray2024Cattiaux2024Sandford2024.
Frequency and Causes of Monthly Temperature Records
The number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now, on average, five times higher than what would be expected in a climate without long-term warming. There is an 80% chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climate change. Summertime records, which are often linked to heat waves, have increased more than tenfold in some regions, including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia, and the Amazon. These records tend to cluster in both space and time, with strong El Niño years adding to the long-term warming trend Coumou2013Cattiaux2024.
Long-Term Global Warming and Monthly Temperature Increments
Innovative trend analyses of global monthly temperature records from 1881 to 2013 show average monthly temperature increases of 0.9°C for minimums, 1.78°C for maximums, and 1.33°C overall. The global warming trend is consistent across different methodologies, with an average warming of about 0.75°C to 0.76°C over the period analyzed . Other datasets confirm that the rate of global warming has not slowed, with the most recent decades warming as fast as or faster than previous ones, despite year-to-year fluctuations from phenomena like El Niño and La Niña Hansen2010Rohde2020.
Datasets and Methodologies for Monthly Temperature Records
Several major datasets provide monthly global temperature records, including the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), the Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record, and the CMA-LSAT dataset. These datasets use thousands of stations worldwide, apply rigorous quality control, and account for uncertainties and spatial coverage. They show consistent global warming trends and allow for detailed monthly and seasonal analysis. For example, the CMA-LSAT dataset finds the most significant warming trends in the March–May (MAM) season, with all seasons showing clear warming since 1900 Menne2018Xu2018Rohde2020.
Projections for Future Monthly Temperature Records
Climate models project that, under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, new high monthly mean temperature records will be set in about 58% of the world every year by the end of the 21st century. This rate drops to 14% under scenarios with much lower emissions. The likelihood of "smashing" a monthly record by more than 1°C is much higher under high-emission scenarios, highlighting the importance of mitigation efforts .
Conclusion
Global monthly temperature records have been consistently broken in recent years, with 2023 standing out as the warmest year on record and featuring a series of unprecedented monthly highs. These trends are closely linked to long-term global warming and are amplified by natural variability such as El Niño. Multiple high-quality datasets confirm these findings, and projections indicate that without significant emission reductions, record-breaking monthly temperatures will become even more common in the future.
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