Global temperature
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Global Temperature Trends and Projections
Historical Global Temperature Changes
Temperature Increase Over the Past 30 Years
Global surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.2°C per decade over the past 30 years, aligning with predictions made in the 1980s using initial global climate models1. This warming trend is consistent across various datasets, including surface and lower-troposphere temperature records, which show a steady increase in global temperatures since 19793.
Long-Term Temperature Reconstructions
Reconstructed temperature records for the past 11,300 years indicate that current global temperatures are higher than those during 90% of the Holocene epoch. The early Holocene experienced warm conditions, followed by a cooling trend that culminated in the Little Ice Age around 200 years ago. Recent warming has reversed this trend, making current temperatures warmer than during most of the Holocene2. Additionally, reconstructions over the past two million years show that global temperature has been closely coupled with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, with significant polar amplification observed over the past 800,000 years6.
Temperature Variations from 1861 to 1984
Data from 1861 to 1984 show little temperature trend in the 19th century, marked warming until 1940, relatively steady conditions until the mid-1970s, and rapid warming thereafter. The warmest years during this period occurred in the 1980s7.
Recent Warming Trends
Consistent Warming Across Different Data Sets
Analysis of various global temperature series from 1979 to 2010 reveals consistent warming trends across different datasets, with rates ranging from 0.014 to 0.018 K per year. Adjusting for short-term variations due to factors like El Niño, volcanic aerosols, and solar variability further clarifies the persistent warming signal3. This trend is corroborated by updated analyses showing that global temperatures have continued to rise at a steady rate over the past decade, despite year-to-year fluctuations9.
Maximum and Minimum Temperature Trends
From 1950 to 2004, minimum temperatures increased more rapidly than maximum temperatures, resulting in a significant decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR). However, from 1979 to 2004, both minimum and maximum temperatures increased at comparable rates, muting recent DTR trends10.
Future Projections and Challenges
Insufficient Efforts to Limit Warming to 1.5°C
Human activities have already caused global temperatures to increase by 1.25°C, and current emissions trajectories suggest that we will exceed 1.5°C in less than 10 years. Despite slowed growth in carbon dioxide emissions and strengthened emissions targets by many countries, current efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. The primary barriers are political and technological inertia, requiring significant leadership and societal changes to overcome4.
Scenarios for Limiting Temperature Increase
Scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W/m², thereby restricting median warming to below 1.5°C, involve rapid shifts away from fossil fuels towards low-carbon energy sources, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, achieving these scenarios is challenging under socio-economic pathways characterized by strong inequalities, high fossil-fuel use, or scattered climate policies5.
Conclusion
The evidence from multiple studies indicates a clear and consistent trend of global warming over the past several decades, with current temperatures exceeding those of most of the Holocene epoch. While recent efforts to mitigate climate change have made some progress, they remain insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. Achieving this goal will require significant and coordinated global efforts to reduce emissions and transition to sustainable energy sources.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
Global temperature change
Global warming of more than 1°C relative to 2000 will constitute "dangerous" climate change, potentially affecting sea level and species extinction.
Highly CitedA Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
Current global temperatures are warmer than during 90% of the entire Holocene, with recent warming being unprecedented in that time.
Highly CitedGlobal temperature evolution 1979–2010
Since 1979, global temperatures have consistently warmed, with the two hottest years being 2009 and 2010.
Highly CitedCurrent global efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C
Current global efforts are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C, and political, corporate, and societal leadership are needed to overcome inertia and implement system-level and individual lifestyle changes.
Highly CitedScenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C
Successful scenarios for limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5°C involve rapid shifts to low-carbon energy, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal.
Highly CitedEvolution of global temperature over the past two million years
The global temperature has cooled for 1.2 million years, and stabilization at current greenhouse gas levels may commit Earth to a 5°C total warming over the next few millennia.
Rigorous JournalHighly CitedGlobal temperature variations between 1861 and 1984
Global mean temperature has shown a rapid warming since the mid-1970s, with the warmest 3 years occurring in the 1980s.
Highly CitedRecent warming in global temperature series
Global temperatures have risen by about 0.1°C per decade since 1958, with surface data showing significant warming and troposphere showing no change.
Highly CitedGLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
Global surface temperature has not declined, with global temperature rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior 2 decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations in tropical ocean temperature.
Highly CitedMaximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004
From 1950-2004, minimum temperature increased more rapidly than maximum temperature, leading to a significant decrease in diurnal temperature range.
Highly Cited