Global warming accelerating
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Accelerating Global Warming: An Analysis of Recent Research
Increasing Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing
Recent studies indicate that anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF) has significantly increased since 2000, primarily due to reductions in aerosol emissions. This has led to a rise in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) trend from +0.18°C per decade in 2000-2009 to +0.35°C per decade in 2010-20191. The observed trends in top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes and aerosol optical depths support the notion of an aerosol-induced temporary acceleration in the rate of warming1. However, internal variability and the difficulty in verifying short-term ERF trends necessitate caution in predictions and policy judgments based on these trends1.
Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases
The rapid warming observed in recent decades has been largely driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as chlorofluorocarbons, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), rather than CO2 from fossil fuel burning2. The growth rate of these non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade, suggesting that future reductions in CH4 and ozone precursors could stabilize climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs. This, combined with efforts to reduce black carbon and CO2 emissions, could potentially slow the rate of global warming2.
Accelerating Ocean Warming
The oceans, which absorb about 93% of the Earth's energy imbalance, have shown rapid warming over the past few decades. This ocean heat content (OHC) increase is a clear indicator of human-induced climate change and has led to various environmental impacts, including rising sea levels, increased rainfall intensity, and the destruction of coral reefs3. The consistency of recent OHC estimates with climate models suggests that these models reliably project future changes in ocean temperatures3.
Regional Variations in Warming
There are significant regional differences in how temperature extremes are increasing under global warming. For instance, hot extremes are accelerating faster than average temperatures in regions such as Europe, North America, South America, and Southeast China6. These hot spots are linked to changes in surface energy fluxes and drying soils. However, the model-simulated acceleration of hot extremes may not always align with observational data, indicating a need for reevaluation of how climate models handle terrestrial processes6.
Impacts on Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Accelerated global warming has also been linked to changes in biodiversity, particularly in remote areas like mountain summits. A study spanning 145 years of plant surveys across Europe found a continent-wide acceleration in the rate of increase in plant species richness, synchronized with global warming trends8. This suggests that climate-induced biotic changes are occurring even in isolated ecosystems, with potential consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning8.
Hydrological Cycle and Extreme Weather Events
As the global climate warms, the hydrological cycle is expected to accelerate, leading to increased evaporation and precipitation. However, some evidence suggests that this acceleration may not be as straightforward as previously thought, with conflicting data on evaporation rates9. Additionally, the acceleration of global warming has been linked to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves, which have significant impacts on human health and the environment5.
Conclusion
The body of research reviewed here underscores the complexity and multifaceted nature of global warming. While there is clear evidence of accelerating warming trends driven by both CO2 and non-CO2 GHGs, regional variations and the interplay of different climate forcings add layers of complexity to our understanding. Continued systematic research and long-term monitoring are essential for accurately predicting future climate changes and informing effective mitigation strategies.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
Is Anthropogenic Global Warming Accelerating?
Anthropogenic global warming has temporarily accelerated due to aerosol emissions reductions, but smaller aerosol ERF trend changes are compatible with observations since 2000.
Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario.
Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases could lead to a decline in global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change.
Highly CitedHow fast are the oceans warming?
Ocean warming is rapidly accelerating, contributing to increased rainfall intensity, rising sea levels, coral reef destruction, declining ocean oxygen levels, and declining ice sheets and glaciers.
Highly CitedAccelerating Global Climate Change
Climate change is accelerating, and preserving our anthropocene world is crucial for preserving species and our planet.
PreprintClimate Change and Respiratory Infections.
Climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses, particularly affecting young children and older adults.
Highly CitedRegional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes
Hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America, and Southeast China are warming faster than average due to changes in surface energy fluxes, but model-simulated accelerated warming may be unreliable.
Highly CitedGlobal temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls
Recent record heat years do not indicate an acceleration of global warming, but rather a steady warming trend since the 1970s, with random short-term variability.
Highly CitedAccelerated increase in plant species richness on mountain summits is linked to warming
Increased global warming has led to an acceleration in plant species richness on mountain summits, with five times as much enrichment between 2007 and 2016 as between 1957 and 1966.
Observational Study
Rigorous JournalHighly CitedIs the Hydrological Cycle Accelerating?
The hydrological cycle may not be accelerating as expected due to global climate warming, but the issue remains unresolved.
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