Greenhouse gas emissions worldwide
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Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Trends, Drivers, and Mitigation Efforts
Introduction to Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been a significant concern since the industrial revolution, leading to an unnatural increase in global surface temperatures and various environmental changes. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol have been pivotal in international efforts to mitigate these emissions1.
Trends in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Historical Emission Trends
From 1990 to 2015, global GHG emissions have shown varied trends across different periods. The average emission efficiencies of countries improved significantly after the Kyoto Protocol, but this effect diminished over time1. Between 1990 and 2018, emissions from sectors such as energy, industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture have shown limited progress in reduction, with a moderate decarbonization observed mainly in Europe and North America3.
Sectoral Contributions
GHG emissions can be traced to five primary economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport, and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and other land uses). The energy sector, particularly fossil fuel combustion, remains the largest contributor, accounting for 80% of anthropogenic GHG emissions8. The agriculture sector, especially cereal production, also contributes significantly, with rice, wheat, and maize being major sources9.
Drivers of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Economic Growth and Consumption
Rapid global economic growth is the dominant driver of GHG emissions. Improvements in energy efficiency and technological innovations have contributed to emission reductions, but these have been offset by increased consumption and investment, particularly in developing countries4. Changes in trade structures have had a moderate impact on global emissions7.
Regional Variations
Different regions exhibit diverse patterns in GHG emissions. Developed countries have seen a decrease in emissions, while low to medium-income countries have experienced a significant increase, driven by higher emissions in China, India, Brazil, and Southeast Asian nations6. Emerging economies have contributed substantially to the growth in emissions, with changes in their national emissions accounting for a significant portion of the global increase7.
Mitigation Efforts and Policies
International Agreements and Protocols
The Kyoto Protocol and subsequent international agreements have played crucial roles in improving emission efficiencies. However, the effectiveness of these measures has waned over time1. The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and other multinational policies have been instrumental in driving emission reductions in industrialized economies8.
Future Projections and Targets
Forecast models, such as the autoregressive integrated moving average model, predict future climate dynamics and emphasize the need for policy measures to lower GHG emissions5. Limiting cumulative CO2 emissions to specific targets is essential to keep global warming below 2°C, as adopted by over 100 countries10.
Conclusion
Global GHG emissions continue to pose a significant challenge, driven by economic growth, consumption patterns, and regional variations. While international treaties and technological advancements have contributed to emission reductions, more robust and regionally tailored measures are necessary to achieve long-term climate goals. Understanding the sources and drivers of emissions is crucial for effective management and mitigation of climate change.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
Greenhouse Gas Emission Efficiencies of World Countries
The Kyoto protocol helped increase greenhouse gas emission efficiency in countries between 1990 and 2015, but this efficiency-boosting effect faded away over time.
Observational Study
Rigorous JournalGlobal Research on Carbon Emissions: A Scientometric Review
Carbon emission research has increased globally, with China, the United States, and England contributing most, and climate change and environmental effects being key concerns.
Literature Review
Highly CitedA review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
Progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions has been limited, with demand for materials, floor area, energy services, and travel driving emissions growth in industry, buildings, and transport sectors.
Literature ReviewHighly CitedWhat causes growth of global greenhouse gas emissions? Evidence from 40 countries.
Rapid global economic growth is the dominant driving force for greenhouse gas emissions, but improved energy efficiency and technology innovation can contribute to emission reduction.
Observational StudyHighly CitedGreenhouse gas emissions: A rapid submerge of the world.
The autoregressive integrated moving average model effectively forecasts future climate dynamics and sea-level rise, highlighting the need for policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow down global warming.
Climate change in a changing world: Socio-economic and technological transitions, regulatory frameworks and trends on global greenhouse gas emissions from EDGAR v.5.0
Global greenhouse gas emissions were 49.1 Gt CO2eq in 2015, 50% higher than 1990, with developed countries leading emission reductions and low to medium income countries increasing emissions by 130%.
Drivers of the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Changes in consumption per capita, technology, population growth, and trade structure contributed to global greenhouse gas emissions from 1995-2008, with emerging economies accounting for 44% of emissions growth.
Observational StudyHighly CitedThe energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion
Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion show that electricity and heat generation, and transport sectors are the primary drivers, with developing economies like China potentially surpassing industrialized countries in absolute emissions.
Highly CitedAn agronomic assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from major cereal crops
Rice has a higher global warming potential than wheat and maize, suggesting greater mitigation opportunities for rice systems.
Meta-AnalysisHighly CitedGreenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
Limiting greenhouse gas emissions to 1,440 Gt CO2 by 2050 can reduce the probability of global warming exceeding 2°C, with less than half of proven economically recoverable oil, gas, and coal reserves needed.
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