Incidence of lung cancer worldwide
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Incidence of Lung Cancer Worldwide
Global Lung Cancer Incidence Rates
Lung cancer remains one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers globally. In 2018, lung cancer accounted for 11.6% of all new cancer cases, making it the most frequently diagnosed cancer worldwide. By 2020, lung cancer was the second most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.2 million new cases, representing 11.4% of the total cancer cases. The incidence rates of lung cancer vary significantly across different regions and countries, influenced by factors such as smoking prevalence, environmental exposures, and genetic predispositions .
Geographic Variability in Lung Cancer Incidence
The incidence of lung cancer shows substantial geographic variability. In countries with a very high Human Development Index (HDI), the incidence rates are generally higher compared to those with a low HDI. For instance, in 2012, the incidence rates were 42.2 per 100,000 for males and 21.8 per 100,000 for females in high HDI countries, compared to 7.9 and 3.1 per 100,000, respectively, in low HDI countries. In Asia, particularly in China (Hong Kong), the age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were among the highest, with 53.3 per 100,000 in males and 21.9 per 100,000 in females during 2003-2007.
Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence
Declining Trends in Males
In many developed countries, the incidence rates of lung cancer among males have been declining. This trend is attributed to the success of tobacco control measures implemented over the past few decades. For example, between 1973 and 2007, the ASRs of lung cancer among males declined in 13 out of 18 selected populations in the Americas, Oceania, and Europe, with annual percentage changes (AAPC) ranging from -0.7% to -2.9%. Similarly, in countries with a very high HDI, the incidence rates among males decreased gradually, with annual declines ranging from -0.3% in Spain to -2.5% in the United States.
Increasing Trends in Females
Conversely, the incidence rates of lung cancer among females have been increasing in many regions. This increase is particularly notable in countries with high HDI, where the rates have been rising steadily. For instance, in Spain, the incidence rates among females increased by 6.1% annually in recent years. The ASRs among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks expected after the 2020s in many European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries.
Future Projections
The global burden of lung cancer is expected to continue rising. By 2035, the number of new lung cancer cases in 40 studied countries is predicted to increase by 65.32%, from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million. The highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3 per 100,000) and among females in Denmark (36.8 per 100,000). This ongoing increase underscores the need for enhanced lung cancer control measures and resource allocation to manage the future burden effectively.
Conclusion
Lung cancer remains a significant global health challenge, with varying incidence rates across different regions and demographic groups. While the incidence rates among males are declining in many developed countries due to effective tobacco control measures, the rates among females are on the rise. Future projections indicate a substantial increase in the global burden of lung cancer, highlighting the urgent need for targeted prevention strategies and improved control measures to mitigate this trend.
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