Does legal abortion reduce crime?

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The Impact of Legal Abortion on Crime Rates

Introduction to Legal Abortion and Crime Reduction

The relationship between legalized abortion and crime rates has been a subject of extensive research and debate. The hypothesis, initially popularized by Donohue and Levitt (2001), suggests that the legalization of abortion in the early 1970s contributed significantly to the reduction in crime rates observed in the 1990s. This article synthesizes findings from multiple studies to provide a comprehensive overview of the impact of legalized abortion on crime rates.

Evidence Supporting the Crime Reduction Hypothesis

Donohue and Levitt's Findings

Donohue and Levitt's seminal work posited that the legalization of abortion led to a decrease in crime rates as it reduced the number of children born into adverse conditions, who are statistically more likely to engage in criminal activities later in life. Their analysis predicted a persistent annual decline in crime rates due to legalized abortion, estimating a 17.5% overall crime reduction from 1998 to 2014, with violent and property crime rates falling by 50% during this period.

Further Empirical Support

Subsequent studies have provided additional support for Donohue and Levitt's hypothesis. For instance, research extending the analysis to the entire lives of cohorts exposed to legalized abortion found a significant negative relationship between abortion and crime, countering earlier critiques that focused on shorter, non-representative periods . Cross-country evidence from Europe also aligns with these findings, showing a significant negative impact of abortion rates on crime, particularly homicide and theft.

Contradictory Findings and Critiques

Inconsistent Evidence

Despite the strong support from some studies, other research has found little consistent evidence linking legalized abortion to crime reduction. For example, one study comparing changes in homicide and arrest rates among cohorts born before and after abortion legalization found no significant effect on recent crime rates, suggesting that other factors, such as changes in crack cocaine use, might explain the observed crime trends.

Methodological Concerns

Critics have raised methodological concerns about the original analyses. Some studies have pointed out coding errors and the need for more appropriate specifications in the regression models used to estimate the impact of abortion on crime. Additionally, analyses focusing on specific periods, such as the peak of the crack epidemic, have failed to find a significant relationship between abortion and crime, highlighting the importance of considering broader temporal contexts.

Case Study: Romania

The case of Romania provides a unique perspective on the abortion-crime link. The abolition of abortion in 1966 and its subsequent legalization in 1989 had immediate and significant effects on birth rates. Studies comparing cohorts born around these policy changes found large effects on crime levels and risky behavior-related hospitalizations, although the effects on crime rates normalized by cohort size were insignificant. This suggests that the observed crime effects were driven more by changes in cohort size than by selection or unwantedness effects .

Conclusion

The relationship between legalized abortion and crime rates is complex and multifaceted. While substantial evidence supports the hypothesis that legalized abortion contributed to crime reduction, particularly through the work of Donohue and Levitt, other studies highlight the importance of considering additional factors and methodological rigor. The case of Romania further underscores the need to account for cohort size effects when evaluating the impact of abortion policies on crime. Overall, while legalized abortion appears to have played a role in reducing crime, it is one of many factors influencing crime trends over time.