Projected global temperature increase by 2050
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Projected Global Temperature Increase by 2050: Key Estimates
Global Mean Temperature Rise Projections by 2050
Multiple climate model studies project that by 2050, the global mean temperature is expected to increase significantly compared to pre-industrial or late 20th-century levels. A large ensemble of climate model simulations that closely match observed temperature changes over the past 50 years estimates a global-mean temperature increase of 1.4–3°C by 2050, relative to the 1961–1990 average, under a mid-range greenhouse gas emissions scenario. This range is consistent with, but extends toward higher warming than, previous expert assessments and model ensembles typically used for climate impact studies .
Other research using CMIP6 models under high emissions scenarios suggests that global mean surface temperature could increase by over 2°C by 2050 relative to the pre-industrial period, with even greater changes at the regional level . Similarly, studies focused on specific regions, such as East Asia, project temperature increases of 1.4–2.9°C by 2050–2060, depending on the emissions scenario, with higher values under less ambitious mitigation pathways .
Thresholds of 1.5°C and 2°C Warming
Analyses of health and climate risks indicate that a 1.5°C global warming threshold is likely to be reached in the 2030s, and a 2°C threshold in the 2050s under most emissions scenarios 37. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would require rapid and deep reductions in fossil fuel use, with studies showing that nearly 60% of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90% of coal, must remain unextracted by 2050 to have a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C . However, current trends suggest that global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050 if emissions are not rapidly curtailed .
Urban and Regional Warming Effects
Urbanization is expected to intensify local warming effects. Projections show that urban land expansion by 2050 will cause additional average summer warming of 0.5–0.7°C globally, with some locations experiencing up to 3°C of extra warming due to the urban heat island effect. This urban-induced warming is about half, and sometimes up to twice, as strong as that caused by greenhouse gas emissions alone 26. In fast-growing cities, such as Ho Chi Minh City, urbanization could add 0.5°C or more to local temperature increases by 2050 .
Implications and Conclusion
By 2050, global mean temperature is projected to rise by 1.4–3°C above late 20th-century levels, with the possibility of exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels under current emissions trajectories 134579. Urban areas will experience even greater warming due to land use changes 26. Achieving the Paris Agreement targets would require unprecedented reductions in fossil fuel extraction and use . Without strong mitigation, the world is on track for significant warming by mid-century, with wide-ranging impacts on health, infrastructure, and ecosystems.
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