Sea level projections 2050
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Sea Level Projections for 2050: An Overview
Global Mean Sea Level Rise Projections
Ice Mass Loss from Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets
The primary drivers of global mean sea level rise (GMSL) are the ice mass losses from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (AIS and GrIS). Empirical projections suggest that by 2050, the AIS and GrIS will contribute between 6-19 mm and 15-31 mm to global sea level rise, respectively1. These projections are based on historical patterns of ice dynamics and future surface mass balance (SMB) data from climate models.
Satellite Observations and Extrapolations
Using satellite altimetry records from 1993 to 2020, researchers have developed a quadratic model to estimate future sea level changes. This model predicts that by 2050, the GMSL will be approximately 16.4 cm higher than in 2020, with an uncertainty range of 11.3-21.4 cm3. This prediction aligns with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, reinforcing the reliability of short-term observational data for future predictions.
Thermal Expansion and Ice Melt Contributions
The rise in sea levels is also significantly influenced by thermal expansion of ocean water and the melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps. Estimates suggest that by 2050, sea levels could rise by approximately 33 cm, although the uncertainty is substantial (σ = 32 cm)5. The contributions from thermal expansion and land ice melt are expected to be of similar magnitudes.
Regional Variability in Sea Level Rise
Spatial and Temporal Evolution
Sea level rise is not uniform across the globe. Regional projections indicate that changes in ocean circulation, heat uptake, and atmospheric pressure will result in varying sea level rises. For instance, coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current may experience up to 30% higher sea level rise compared to the global mean, while the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic Ocean may see only 50% of the global mean rise6.
Impact on Coastal Flood Hazards
Probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) suggest that by 2050, many tropical regions will experience annual occurrences of what are currently considered 100-year flood events. This increase in ESLs is primarily driven by thermal expansion and ice mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets8. Consequently, coastal flood hazards are expected to intensify significantly, necessitating timely adaptation measures.
Socioeconomic Implications
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Future sea level rise and its societal impacts are closely linked to climate change pathways and socioeconomic development scenarios. Projections under various SSPs indicate that without dedicated climate mitigation, median sea level rise by 2100 could range from 89 cm to 132 cm, depending on the scenario9. Early and rapid emission reductions are crucial to limiting future sea level rise and mitigating its impacts on coastal communities.
Adaptive Management and Decision Frameworks
Given the uncertainties in sea level projections, robust decision-making and adaptive management frameworks are essential. These frameworks should incorporate probabilistic projections and consider the potential for extreme outcomes, especially under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios7. Effective planning and infrastructure design will be critical in managing the risks associated with rising sea levels.
Conclusion
Projections for sea level rise by 2050 indicate significant increases driven by ice mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets, thermal expansion, and regional variability in oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The impacts will be felt unevenly across the globe, with some regions experiencing more pronounced rises and increased flood hazards. Socioeconomic pathways and climate mitigation efforts will play a crucial role in shaping future sea level scenarios, highlighting the need for proactive and adaptive management strategies to safeguard coastal communities.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations
From 2021 to 2050, global sea level rise due to Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations ranges between 6-19 mm and 15-31 mm, with more pronounced rises in lower latitude regions.
Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100
Probabilistic projections of coastal mean sea level rise by 2100 remain highly uncertain, with uncertainties affecting decision-making for infrastructure design and land use planning.
Extrapolating Empirical Models of Satellite‐Observed Global Mean Sea Level to Estimate Future Sea Level Change
Satellite-observed global mean sea level rise in 2050 will be 16.4 cm higher than 2020, with an uncertainty range of 11.3-21.4 cm, indicating the value of short-term observationally driven extrapolations for predicting future sea level change.
Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability
Current methodologies and data sources can constrain future sea-level rise projections, highlighting the need for accurate predictions and new research questions.
Highly CitedA projection of future sea level
Warmer climate leads to faster sea-level rise, with melting of mountain glaciers, polar ice sheets, and thermal expansion of ocean water dominating the process.
Highly CitedProjecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
Regional sea-level changes in the 21st century are projected to be up to 30% higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with land ice contributing the most to the uncertainty.
Highly CitedEvolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice‐Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea‐Level Projections
High greenhouse gas emissions could increase sea-level rise by 146 cm by 2100, potentially submerging land currently home to 153 million people.
Highly CitedGlobal probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
Global warming is projected to drive an increase in extreme sea levels, resulting in increased coastal flood hazards along most global coastlines by the end of the century.
Highly CitedLinking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 sea level rise, with a median of around 50 cm if CO2 emissions stay below 850 GtC and a global coal phase-out occurs by 2050.
Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300
By AD 2300), sea-level rise could exceed 1.0 m if climate mitigation measures are not successful.
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