Sea level rise in the United States
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Projected Sea Level Rise in the United States
Sea level rise (SLR) in the United States is expected to be significant by the end of the 21st century, with projections ranging from 200 to 900 mm (about 8 to 35 inches) by 2100, depending on location, climate model, and greenhouse gas scenario. The Mid- and Upper-Atlantic regions are particularly vulnerable, with local factors like land subsidence contributing to higher relative sea level rise in some areas. Inundation could affect thousands of square kilometers and hundreds of thousands of people, especially in economically developed states such as New York and New Jersey, where both population and infrastructure are at high risk Wu2009Hauer2016Yin2009+2 MORE.
Regional Variability and Contributing Factors
East Coast Patterns and Ocean Dynamics
The East Coast of the United States shows notable regional differences in sea level rise rates. The Mid-Atlantic region is experiencing higher rates (about 4 mm/year) compared to the Northeast and Southeast (about 2.8–2.9 mm/year). This variability is influenced by both land subsidence and ocean dynamics, such as changes in the Gulf Stream and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These oceanic changes can cause additional regional sea level increases, particularly in the Northeast, compounding the effects of global sea level rise Yin2009Beckman2019Engelhart2009+1 MORE.
Land Subsidence and Urban Vulnerability
Coastal subsidence, or the sinking of land, is a critical factor that can worsen the impacts of sea level rise. Many US coastal cities are threatened by both rising seas and sinking land, which together increase the risk of flooding and property loss. Not accounting for local subsidence can lead to underestimating the true exposure of people and infrastructure to future inundation Ohenhen2024Engelhart2009.
Population and Infrastructure at Risk
By 2100, millions of people in the United States could be at risk from sea level rise. A 0.9-meter rise could put 4.2 million people at risk, while a 1.8-meter rise could affect 13.1 million people—numbers that are expected to grow with ongoing population growth in coastal areas. Major infrastructure, including roads and properties, is also at risk, with the potential for large-scale population movements similar to historical migrations Wu2009Hauer2016Ohenhen2024.
Socioeconomic and Equity Impacts
Disproportionate Risks for Vulnerable Communities
Socially vulnerable populations, including Black and Hispanic communities, renters, and older adults, face a higher risk of isolation and abandonment due to sea level rise. These groups are more likely to live in areas that are not prioritized for protection and may experience greater difficulty accessing critical services as transportation networks are disrupted by flooding. The Gulf region, in particular, has a high concentration of vulnerable populations unlikely to be protected from inundation Martinich2013Best2023.
Nuisance Flooding and Economic Losses
Even minor, non-destructive flooding events—known as nuisance flooding—are becoming more frequent due to sea level rise. These events cause public inconvenience, business interruptions, and infrastructure degradation, leading to substantial economic losses and increased public health risks. The frequency and impact of nuisance flooding are expected to rise significantly by 2050, further stressing coastal communities .
Conclusion
Sea level rise in the United States poses a growing threat to millions of people, critical infrastructure, and entire communities, with the most severe impacts expected in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions. The risks are not evenly distributed, with socially vulnerable populations facing greater challenges and fewer protections. Addressing these challenges will require careful consideration of regional variability, local land subsidence, and the needs of at-risk communities to ensure effective adaptation and equitable outcomes.
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