Sea level rise projections in the USA
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Regional Sea Level Rise Projections in the USA
Sea level rise (SLR) projections in the United States show significant regional variation in both the magnitude of expected rise and the time horizons considered. The Northeast and West regions often plan for SLR projections extending to 2150 or beyond, while the South typically limits projections to 2100. Notably, most projections in the Northeast and West provide a range of possible outcomes, whereas the South tends to use single estimates, which may underestimate the upper limits of future SLR compared to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regional projections. Over half of U.S. communities may be underestimating the potential upper end of SLR risk .
High-Risk Areas and Contributing Factors
The northern Gulf Coast and the East Coast south of the Chesapeake Bay are particularly vulnerable to SLR due to a combination of land subsidence, higher satellite altimetry trends, and increased geocentric velocities in mean sea level. These factors exacerbate the threats posed by rising seas in these regions . Additionally, the Northeast coast is projected to experience rapid SLR due to changes in ocean circulation, specifically the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which could add 15–21 cm of rise for New York City alone by 2100, on top of global averages .
Observation-Based and Model Projections
Recent observation-based trajectories using satellite altimetry and tide gauge data indicate that SLR along U.S. coastlines is tracking near or above the higher-end model projections for 2050, suggesting that actual rise may be at the upper end of previously estimated ranges . For North Carolina, projections indicate a very likely rise of 42–132 cm by 2100 under high-emissions scenarios, with 21st-century rates expected to exceed those of the 20th century .
Urban and Population Impacts
By 2050, SLR of 0.25–0.3 meters is expected along U.S. coastlines, threatening increased flooding and inundation in major cities. When accounting for land subsidence, between 1,006 and 1,389 km² of additional urban land and up to 273,000 people could be at risk in 32 major coastal cities, highlighting the need for improved adaptation planning . By 2100, a 0.9-meter rise could put 4.2 million people at risk of inundation, while a 1.8-meter rise could affect 13.1 million people, with population growth amplifying these impacts . In Georgia alone, between 62,000 and 159,000 people could be at risk from 1–2 meters of SLR by 2100 .
Migration and Societal Implications
SLR is projected to drive large-scale migration within the U.S., with effects extending beyond coastal areas as displaced populations move inland. This migration could disproportionately affect certain regions and may rival the scale of major historical population movements Hauer2016Robinson2020.
Conclusion
Sea level rise projections for the USA indicate significant regional differences, with the Northeast and Gulf Coast facing particularly high risks due to both oceanic and land-based factors. Observation-based data suggest that SLR may be occurring at the higher end of model projections, increasing the urgency for adaptation and planning. The societal impacts, including population displacement and urban inundation, are likely to be profound, underscoring the need for comprehensive, forward-looking strategies to address the challenges posed by rising seas.
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