Us greenhouse gas emissions
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US Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Current Trends and Challenges
Federal Climate Policy and Emissions Projections
The trajectory of US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is significantly influenced by federal climate policies. With the planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and uncertainties surrounding federal climate policies, projections indicate that market forces alone may keep US energy-related GHG emissions relatively flat or lead to modest reductions. By 2040, emissions could range from a 10% increase to a 23% decrease from baseline estimates, depending on factors such as fuel prices and technological advancements in energy sectors.
Under-Reporting of Emissions in US Cities
A critical issue in managing GHG emissions is the accuracy of self-reported data from cities. Studies have shown that US cities under-report their GHG emissions by an average of 18.3%, with discrepancies arising from omitted fuels and source types, and differing methods of estimating transportation emissions. This under-reporting, if extrapolated, could exceed California's total emissions by 23.5%, highlighting the need for more accurate urban GHG information systems.
Methane Emissions from Agriculture and Fossil Fuels
Methane, a potent GHG, is significantly under-reported in current inventories. Research indicates that methane emissions from agriculture and fossil fuel extraction and processing are likely twice as high as previously estimated. This discrepancy is particularly pronounced in the south-central US, where emissions are about 2.7 times greater than reported. Effective GHG reduction strategies require accurate estimates of methane emissions from these sectors.
Household Consumption and Global Emissions
US household consumption has a substantial carbon footprint, both domestically and globally. From 1995 to 2014, the annual carbon footprint of US households ranged from 17.7 to 20.6 tCO2eq per capita, with housing and transportation contributing the most. Notably, the proportion of the carbon footprint occurring overseas has been increasing, emphasizing the global impact of US consumption patterns.
Methane Emissions in the Oil and Gas Sector
Methane emissions from the US oil and natural gas supply chain are significantly higher than official estimates. Recent studies suggest that emissions are about 60% higher than the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) inventory estimates, primarily due to emissions during abnormal operating conditions. Addressing these discrepancies is crucial for improving GHG inventories and guiding mitigation policies.
Public Support for GHG Reduction Legislation
Despite the lack of federal legislation to limit GHG emissions, public support for such measures is strong. Surveys consistently show that large majorities of Americans endorse policies aimed at reducing GHG emissions, such as fuel economy standards, renewable energy mandates, and emissions limitations for utilities and businesses. This support is driven by widespread belief in the reality and threat of global warming.
Sectoral Trends in GHG Emissions
GHG emissions can be traced to five key sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU). While there has been moderate decarbonization in energy systems in North America, driven by fuel switching and renewable energy, emissions in rapidly industrializing regions continue to grow. Strong demand for materials, energy services, and travel has driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings, and transport sectors, particularly in Asia.
Conclusion
The challenge of reducing US GHG emissions is multifaceted, involving accurate reporting, effective policy implementation, and public support. Addressing under-reported emissions, particularly methane from agriculture and fossil fuels, and leveraging public support for climate policies are critical steps. Additionally, understanding the global impact of US consumption and sectoral trends can guide more effective mitigation strategies.
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