What would happen if the sea level rise by 1 meter

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Research Analysis by Consensus

Consensus Meter

Yes

Possibly

Impacts of a 1-Meter Sea Level Rise

Coastal Wetlands and Ecosystems

A 1-meter rise in sea level would have a profound impact on coastal wetlands globally. Approximately 64% of freshwater marshes, 66% of coastal wetlands from the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database, and 61% of brackish/saline wetlands are at risk of submersion. This loss would be particularly severe in regions such as East Asia and the Pacific, and the Middle East and North Africa, with countries like China, Vietnam, Libya, and Egypt bearing the brunt of these impacts. The economic value of the goods and services produced by these at-risk wetlands is estimated to be around $630 million per year in 2000 U.S. dollars.

Population Displacement and Land Loss

A 1-meter rise in sea level would inundate significant land areas, affecting millions of people. GIS analysis estimates that such a rise would affect approximately 1.055 million km² of land, displacing around 108 million people. The most affected land-cover types would be forests and grasslands, which account for more than 60% of the susceptible areas.

Economic Costs and Infrastructure

The economic costs of adapting to a 1-meter sea level rise are substantial. In the United States alone, the cost of protecting developed coastal areas through measures such as levees and bulkheads is estimated to be between $270 and $475 billion, excluding future development. If no protective measures are taken, approximately 30,000 km² of land would be inundated, with both wet and dry land accounting for about half of this loss.

Regional Variability and Projections

The impact of a 1-meter sea level rise will vary regionally. For instance, the IPCC's fifth assessment report suggests a "likely" range of 0.45 to 0.98 meters by 2100 under the highest emission scenarios, but acknowledges that higher sea levels could occur if sections of the Antarctic ice sheet collapse. This regional variability means that some areas could experience sea level rises significantly above the global average, leading to more severe local impacts.

Long-Term Projections and Adaptation

While a 1-meter rise is a significant concern for this century, projections indicate that sea levels will continue to rise beyond 2100. Some studies suggest that a 2-meter rise is possible under accelerated conditions, although this is considered less likely . Given the long-term nature of sea level rise, it is crucial to start adapting now. This involves integrating coastal adaptation into development planning to reduce future damages and exploit emerging opportunities.

Conclusion

A 1-meter rise in sea level would have widespread and severe impacts on coastal ecosystems, populations, and economies. The loss of wetlands, displacement of millions of people, and substantial economic costs highlight the urgent need for adaptive measures. Regional variability in sea level rise further complicates the issue, necessitating localized adaptation strategies. Long-term planning and immediate action are essential to mitigate these impacts and ensure sustainable coastal development.