What would happen if the sea level rise by 1 meter
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Impacts of a 1-Meter Sea Level Rise
Coastal Wetlands and Ecosystems
A 1-meter rise in sea level would have a profound impact on coastal wetlands globally. Approximately 64% of freshwater marshes, 66% of coastal wetlands from the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database, and 61% of brackish/saline wetlands are at risk of submersion1. This loss would be particularly severe in regions such as East Asia and the Pacific, and the Middle East and North Africa, with countries like China, Vietnam, Libya, and Egypt bearing the brunt of these impacts1. The economic value of the goods and services produced by these at-risk wetlands is estimated to be around $630 million per year in 2000 U.S. dollars1.
Population Displacement and Land Loss
A 1-meter rise in sea level would inundate significant land areas, affecting millions of people. GIS analysis estimates that such a rise would affect approximately 1.055 million km² of land, displacing around 108 million people4. The most affected land-cover types would be forests and grasslands, which account for more than 60% of the susceptible areas4.
Economic Costs and Infrastructure
The economic costs of adapting to a 1-meter sea level rise are substantial. In the United States alone, the cost of protecting developed coastal areas through measures such as levees and bulkheads is estimated to be between $270 and $475 billion, excluding future development9. If no protective measures are taken, approximately 30,000 km² of land would be inundated, with both wet and dry land accounting for about half of this loss9.
Regional Variability and Projections
The impact of a 1-meter sea level rise will vary regionally. For instance, the IPCC's fifth assessment report suggests a "likely" range of 0.45 to 0.98 meters by 2100 under the highest emission scenarios, but acknowledges that higher sea levels could occur if sections of the Antarctic ice sheet collapse3. This regional variability means that some areas could experience sea level rises significantly above the global average, leading to more severe local impacts5.
Long-Term Projections and Adaptation
While a 1-meter rise is a significant concern for this century, projections indicate that sea levels will continue to rise beyond 2100. Some studies suggest that a 2-meter rise is possible under accelerated conditions, although this is considered less likely6 7. Given the long-term nature of sea level rise, it is crucial to start adapting now. This involves integrating coastal adaptation into development planning to reduce future damages and exploit emerging opportunities8.
Conclusion
A 1-meter rise in sea level would have widespread and severe impacts on coastal ecosystems, populations, and economies. The loss of wetlands, displacement of millions of people, and substantial economic costs highlight the urgent need for adaptive measures. Regional variability in sea level rise further complicates the issue, necessitating localized adaptation strategies. Long-term planning and immediate action are essential to mitigate these impacts and ensure sustainable coastal development.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands: Impacts and Costs
A 1-meter sea-level rise could submerge 64 percent of freshwater marsh, 66 percent of coastal wetlands, and 61 percent of brackish/saline wetlands, with significant economic losses in East Asia, the Pacific, and the Middle East and North Africa.
The risk of sea level rise
Climate change is likely to accelerate sea level rise, with a 50% chance of exceeding 34 cm by 2100 and a 1% chance of exceeding one meter by 2200, requiring coastal planners and engineers to adapt.
Highly CitedSea-level rise by 2100.
The IPCC's fifth assessment report projects sea-level rise of 0.45 to 0.82 meters by 2100, with a one-third probability of higher levels if Antarctic ice sheets collapse.
Highly CitedGIS analysis of global impacts from sea level rise.
Sea level rise of one to six meters could disrupt coastal regions, with forest and grassland accounting for over 60% of the impact, and interactive visualization products aiding in understanding and communication.
Highly CitedIdentifying the causes of sea-level change
Sea-level rise is likely to exceed one meter by the 21st century, with regional variations potentially reaching several decimetres.
Highly CitedThe transient sensitivity of sea level rise
The transient sea level sensitivity metric suggests that the likely upper level of sea level projections in recent IPCC reports may be too low, as climate models underestimate the rate of sea level rise.
Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise
By 2100, sea-level rise of over 2 meters is physically untenable, with more plausible scenarios leading to a rise of about 0.8 meter.
Highly CitedAdaptation to multi-meter sea-level rise should start now
Adaptation to two meters of sea-level rise should start now, in addition to climate mitigation, to reduce damages, losses, and lock-ins in coastal areas.
Greenhouse effect and sea level rise: The cost of holding back the sea
A 1m rise in sea level could cost $270-$475 billion to protect coastal areas, with coastal wetlands and undeveloped lowlands being affected equally.
Highly CitedA Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise
The rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to global mean surface temperature, with a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.
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