What is the impact of climate change on global agriculture?
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Impact of Climate Change on Global Agriculture
Rising Temperatures and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Climate change poses a significant threat to global agriculture, primarily driven by rising temperatures and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The average global temperature is projected to rise by 2°C by 2100, leading to substantial economic losses worldwide1. The concentration of CO2, a major greenhouse gas, is increasing rapidly, which initially boosts plant productivity through enhanced photosynthesis. However, this benefit is offset by higher temperatures that increase crop respiration rates, evapotranspiration, pest infestations, and reduce crop duration1.
Variations in Rainfall and Extreme Weather Events
Climate change affects agriculture through variations in annual rainfall, heat waves, and modifications in weed, pest, and microbial populations. These changes result in biotic and abiotic stresses that negatively impact crop production and food security2. For instance, fluctuations in sea levels and global atmospheric CO2 or ozone levels further exacerbate these stresses, making agriculture one of the most endangered activities due to climate change2.
Impact on Crop Yields and Agricultural Productivity
The impact of climate change on crop yields and agricultural productivity is profound. Studies using various methods, including manipulated experiments, crop models, and statistical models, have shown significant uncertainties in predicting these impacts. However, it is clear that climate change reduces global agricultural productivity, with anthropogenic climate change (ACC) reducing total factor productivity (TFP) by about 21% since 19613 6. This reduction is more severe in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America, where TFP has decreased by 26-34%6.
Economic and Welfare Implications
Climate change has substantial economic and welfare implications for global agriculture. It is expected to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture, altering the distribution of harvested land and affecting production and international trade patterns4. Higher food prices and significant welfare losses are anticipated, with the most considerable losses occurring under high-end climate change scenarios4 5. These welfare losses primarily affect consumers, especially in low-latitude regions, and could reach an annual loss of 0.3% of future global GDP by the end of the century5.
Regional Variations and Vulnerabilities
The impact of climate change on agriculture varies significantly by region. For example, Asian agriculture, which accounts for two-thirds of global agricultural GDP, is particularly vulnerable. A study predicts that with a 3°C warming, the region could face damages amounting to US$84 billion, with India being especially at risk10. Similarly, global average yields, area, production, and consumption are projected to decline by 2050, with more severe impacts under higher emissions pathways7.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
To mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture, several strategies are being explored. Climate-smart agriculture, which includes modern breeding technologies and biotechnological strategies, aims to develop climate-resilient crops2. Advances in genomics and agronomy can also help alleviate some impacts, but significant investment is required to realize these changes8. Additionally, trade policy reforms and compensation mechanisms for environmental and development concerns are essential to alleviate climate change impacts5.
Conclusion
In conclusion, climate change significantly impacts global agriculture through rising temperatures, variations in rainfall, and extreme weather events. These changes lead to reduced crop yields, lower agricultural productivity, and substantial economic and welfare losses. Regional variations highlight the vulnerability of specific areas, particularly warmer regions and major agricultural producers like Asia. Adaptation and mitigation strategies, including climate-smart agriculture and technological advancements, are crucial to ensuring future food security and minimizing the adverse effects of climate change on global agriculture.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies: A Review
Climate change increases crop respiration, evapotranspiration, and pest infestation, reducing crop duration and affecting plant growth and productivity.
Literature Review
Highly CitedImpact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review
Climate-smart agriculture, using modern breeding technologies and biotechnological strategies, can help develop climate resilient crops and enhance food security.
Literature ReviewHighly CitedA method review of the climate change impact on crop yield
This study compared three methods for assessing climate change impacts on crop yield, identifying strengths, limitations, and ideal applications, and suggested improvements for a more accurate assessment of climate impacts on agriculture.
Systematic ReviewClimate change impacts on global agriculture
Climate change and CO2 fertilization will significantly impact global agriculture, leading to lower food production, welfare, and GDP, with higher food prices expected.
Highly CitedThe impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare
High-end climate change can negatively impact global agricultural welfare, leading to higher food prices and mainly affecting consumers, especially in low-latitude regions.
Highly CitedAnthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth
Anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural productivity by 21% since 1961, with stronger impacts in warmer regions like Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean.
Highly CitedClimate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios
Climate change impacts on agricultural yields, area, production, and consumption are similar across socioeconomic pathways, but increase with higher emissions levels, with regional variations.
Highly CitedClimate change and the need for agricultural adaptation.
Climate change significantly impacts agriculture and food security, necessitating adaptation strategies like changing land and cropping practices, developing improved crop varieties, and reducing food consumption and waste.
Highly CitedMitigation of emerging implications of climate change on food production systems
Climate change negatively impacts agriculture, animal husbandry, and fishing, posing challenges and threatening food safety, necessitating mitigation strategies.
Highly CitedThe Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia
Climate change could cause US$84 billion in damages to Asian agriculture by 3°C warming, with India being particularly vulnerable.
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