How do we address the problem of induction and scientific inference?
Pro Research Analysisby 
Searched over 200M research papers
Addressing the Problem of Induction and Scientific Inference
Introduction to the Problem of Induction
The problem of induction, first articulated by David Hume in the 18th century, questions the rational basis for making generalizations based on empirical observations. Hume argued that inductive inferences lack a rational foundation and are instead a matter of psychological habit6. This issue has profound implications for the philosophy and methodology of science, as it challenges the rational justification of scientific knowledge.
Pragmatic Justification of Induction
One approach to addressing the problem of induction is the pragmatic justification, which has been developed within the frequency interpretation of probability. This approach, notably advanced by Hans Reichenbach and later by W.C. Salmon, argues that inductive methods are justified pragmatically because they are the best available means for predicting future events based on past experiences1. However, this approach still leaves some problems unresolved, particularly those highlighted by Salmon's arguments1.
Braithwaite's Criteria for Valid Inference
R.B. Braithwaite offers another perspective by focusing on the criteria that justify inductive inferences. He suggests that understanding what makes an inference "reasonable" or "valid" involves identifying common principles underlying all inductive inferences. By examining these principles, we can better understand the conditions under which inductive conclusions are justified2.
BonJour's A Priori Justification
Laurence BonJour proposes a novel approach, arguing that while it is contingent that our inductive patterns are reliable, it is a priori necessary that these patterns are highly likely to be reliable. This, he claims, provides an a priori justification for induction. However, this proposal faces challenges, particularly in making sense of the claim that inductive inference is "necessarily highly likely" to be reliable3.
Direct Inference and the Goodman Problem
The approach of "induction by direct inference" addresses the Goodman problem, which involves the challenge of distinguishing between valid and invalid inductive inferences (e.g., the "grue" problem). This method uses standard principles of direct inference to show that problematic inferences like the "grue" predicate are defeated, thus providing a robust solution to Goodman's problem4.
Ontological Solutions
Ontological solutions to the problem of induction involve the idea of the uniformity of nature, which can be understood through concepts like natural kinds and natural necessity. These solutions suggest that the practice of inductive inference is justified by the inherent uniformity of nature. However, given the diverse contexts in which induction is applied, a pluralistic approach that considers multiple ontological ideas may be more effective5.
Causal Induction and Theory Acceptance
Inducing causal relationships from observations is a central task in scientific inference. A computational framework for causal induction suggests that domain-general statistical inference, guided by domain-specific prior knowledge, can effectively model causal learning. This framework highlights the importance of abstract prior knowledge in organizing entities, properties, and relations, which are crucial for inducing useful causal models from sparse data7.
Inference to the Best Explanation
The method of "Inference to the Best Explanation" (IBE) offers another solution to the problem of induction. This approach suggests that we should accept the hypothesis that best explains the available evidence. IBE provides a formal framework for evaluating explanatory hypotheses and contrasts with other solutions by emphasizing the role of explanatory considerations in confirming hypotheses9 10.
Conclusion
The problem of induction remains a significant challenge in the philosophy of science. Various approaches, including pragmatic justification, criteria for valid inference, a priori justification, direct inference, ontological solutions, and inference to the best explanation, offer different ways to address this problem. Each approach has its strengths and limitations, and a pluralistic strategy that incorporates multiple perspectives may provide the most comprehensive solution.
Sources and full results
Most relevant research papers on this topic
Some recent views on probability and induction
The pragmatic approach, based on frequency interpretation or probability, is the best attempt to justify inductive methods in scientific research, but still leaves unsolved problems in social sciences.
R. B. BRAITHWAITE ON PROBABILITY AND INDUCTION*1
Braithwaite's solution is to consider the commonality of all inductive conclusions, focusing on the principles of inference and their relevance to the scientific hypothesis being inferred.
Inter-world probability and the problem of induction
BonJour's claim that inductive inference patterns are highly likely to be reliable is not knowable a priori, as it is contingent and contingently determined.
Induction by Direct Inference Meets the Goodman Problem
Induction by direct inference effectively addresses Goodman's problem of induction, eliminating the need for projectibility considerations.
Ontological Solutions to the Problem of Induction
No single ontological idea is absolute preferred for inductive inference, and a proper strategy is to welcome plurality and consider pragmatic considerations in each case.
Theory-based causal induction.
This paper presents a computational-level framework for modeling various forms of causal learning, highlighting the importance of domain-specific prior knowledge and abstract causal theory for effective induction from sparse data.
Highly CitedExplanation and the New Riddle of Induction
This paper proposes a novel solution to Goodman's new riddle of induction, arguing that scientific methodology precludes significant confirmation of the Grue Hypothesis due to intuitive constraints on explanatory hypotheses.
Try another search
What are the health implications of the increasing use of telemedicine and digital health services?
road safety
What is the role of sensors and IoT in precision agriculture?
What are the ethics of animal testing?
The role of technology in facilitating disaster preparedness, response, and recovery efforts.
project water quality monitoring for aquaculture