Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity
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Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity
Global Agricultural Productivity Decline Due to Climate Change
Climate change has significantly impacted global agricultural productivity. Research indicates that anthropogenic climate change (ACC) has reduced global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) by approximately 21% since 1961, which is equivalent to losing the last seven years of productivity growth. This impact is more severe in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America, where reductions range from 26% to 34%1.
Regional Variations in Crop Yields
The effects of climate change on crop productivity vary significantly across different regions. In Africa and South Asia, climate change is projected to reduce the yield of major crops by an average of 8% by the 2050s. Specific crops such as wheat, maize, sorghum, and millet are expected to see yield reductions ranging from 5% to 17% in these regions3. In Europe, northern areas may experience positive effects due to the introduction of new crop species and higher crop production, while southern areas may face increased water shortages and extreme weather events, leading to lower yields and higher yield variability8.
Mechanisms of Climate Impact on Agriculture
Several mechanisms explain how climate change affects agricultural productivity. Increased atmospheric CO2 can enhance plant productivity through improved photosynthesis, but this benefit is often offset by higher temperatures, which increase crop respiration rates, evapotranspiration, and pest infestations2. Additionally, climate change affects soil microbial populations and their enzymatic activities, further influencing crop growth and productivity2.
Long-Term and Short-Term Effects
The impact of climate change on agriculture can be observed in both the short and long term. In the short term, CO2 emissions may have a positive effect on agricultural productivity due to carbon fertilization. However, in the long term, this effect turns negative as the adverse impacts of higher temperatures and extreme weather events outweigh the benefits5. For instance, in China, extreme heat has been shown to negatively affect agricultural TFP and input utilization in the short run, but longer-term adaptation strategies have mitigated some of these negative effects10.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
To counteract the adverse effects of climate change, various adaptation and mitigation strategies have been proposed. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices, such as sustainable land management and water-efficient crop varieties, have shown promise in enhancing agricultural productivity amidst climate change. In Africa, CSA approaches have led to significant productivity gains, with some regions experiencing up to 200% increases in output7. Additionally, policies supporting flexible land use, crop production, and farming systems are crucial for adapting to climate change while maintaining food security8.
Conclusion
Climate change poses a significant threat to global agricultural productivity, with varying impacts across different regions and crops. While some areas may benefit from increased CO2 levels, the overall trend indicates a decline in productivity due to higher temperatures and extreme weather events. Adaptation and mitigation strategies, such as climate-smart agriculture and supportive policies, are essential to counteract these negative effects and ensure food security in the face of ongoing climate change.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth
Anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural productivity by 21% since 1961, with stronger impacts in warmer regions like Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean.
Highly CitedImpact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies: A Review
Climate change increases crop respiration, evapotranspiration, and pest infestation, reducing crop duration and affecting plant growth and productivity.
Literature ReviewHighly CitedClimate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia
Climate change is projected to negatively impact wheat, maize, sorghum, and millet yields in Africa and South Asia by 2050, while rice, cassava, and sugarcane yields remain inconclusive.
Meta-AnalysisHighly CitedThe Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop Productivity1
Climate change trends will likely increase global crop yields by 1.8% per decade, while warming trends may reduce yields by 1.5% per decade without effective adaptation.
Literature ReviewHighly CitedThe impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Asian countries: a heterogeneous panel data approach
Climate change has a long-term negative impact on agricultural productivity in Asia, but CO2 emissions have a short-term positive effect, indicating carbon fertilization in the atmosphere can positively impact productivity.
Observational StudyHighly CitedDetermining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity
Climate changes could cause US agricultural productivity to fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050, even with current technology improvements.
Highly CitedClimate-Smart Agriculture Amidst Climate Change to Enhance Agricultural Production: A Bibliometric Analysis
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA-CCAP) can boost agricultural productivity and adapt to climate change, potentially reducing hunger, poverty, and improving people's well-being.
Systematic ReviewConsequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy
Climate change may boost agricultural productivity in northern Europe, but may also cause water shortages and extreme weather events, necessitating adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Highly CitedGlobal climate change and US agriculture
US agriculture's sensitivity to climate change may lead to increased irrigated acreage and shifts in regional patterns, with the impact on the economy depending on the climate model used.
Highly CitedResponse and adaptation of agriculture to climate change: Evidence from China
China's agriculture experiences short-term negative effects from extreme heat, but long-term adaptation mitigates these negative effects through flexible adjustments in labor, fertilizer, and machines.
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