The impact of the military junta in 2021: Is Myanmar on a path to falling into a failed state?
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The Impact of the 2021 Military Junta: Is Myanmar on the Path to Becoming a Failed State?
Historical Context and Democratic Transition
Myanmar has experienced multiple military coups since 1962, with the most recent one occurring in February 2021. Despite previous attempts at democratic reforms, including press freedom and elections allowing pro-democratic parties like the National League for Democracy (NLD) to participate, the military junta abruptly seized power again in 20211. The failure of Myanmar's democratic transition can be attributed to several factors: a top-down approach to democratization, lack of genuine democratic installation, unbalanced civil-military relations, and the military's fear of losing constitutional privileges1.
Civil Disobedience and Resistance Movements
Following the coup, Myanmar witnessed the rapid emergence of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), which evolved into the People's Defense Forces (PDF). This movement has been characterized by widespread nonviolent resistance, strategic non-cooperation, and, eventually, armed resistance against the military junta2 3. The formation of the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), the interim National Unity Government (NUG), and the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) has been pivotal in organizing and sustaining resistance efforts2.
Economic and Humanitarian Crisis
The coup has had devastating effects on Myanmar's economy and human rights situation. The country has plummeted in global democracy rankings, now positioned between Afghanistan and North Korea4. The military's brutal crackdown on opposition has failed to consolidate control, leading to ongoing instability and a potential humanitarian crisis akin to Syria, with widespread displacement and hunger exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic4 5.
Ethnic Rebel Politics and Multi-Front War
The military junta is currently engaged in a multi-front war, particularly in the borderlands, where ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and newly formed anti-junta militias are actively resisting5. This complex conflict landscape has further destabilized the country, making it difficult for any single entity to gain complete control.
Prospects for Federal Democracy and Inclusive Governance
Despite the turmoil, the resistance movement has fostered a sense of national unity across gender, ethnic, religious, and class lines. The NUG's efforts to promote federal democracy and inclusive governance offer a glimmer of hope for Myanmar's future2. However, the ongoing cycles of violence and the military's entrenched power pose significant challenges to achieving lasting peace and democratic governance2 3.
Conclusion
Myanmar's path since the 2021 military coup has been fraught with challenges, including economic collapse, humanitarian crises, and ongoing armed conflict. While the resistance movements have shown resilience and unity, the country's future remains uncertain. The potential for Myanmar to become a failed state is high unless significant political changes and reconciliation efforts are undertaken. The international community's role in supporting these efforts will be crucial in determining Myanmar's trajectory.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Failure of Myanmar's Democratic Transition
The failure of Myanmar's democratic transition was due to four factors: top-down path, unbalanced civil-military relations, fear of Aung San Suu Kyi, and military coup in 2021.
Myanmar’s Coup d’état and the Struggle for Federal Democracy and Inclusive Government
The Civil Disobedience Movement in Myanmar has shown resilience and potential for future peaceful nation building, reconciliation, and healing from civil war trauma.
"Myanmar’s 2021 Military Coup, Its Impact on Domestic Politics, and a Revolutionary Road to Democratization?"
Myanmar's 2021 military coup led to a state of civil war and strong resistance, potentially leading to domestic political changes towards democratization in the medium term.
MYANMAR A YEAR AFTER THE MILITARY COUP
The military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 has led to a decline in democracy, with the military unable to consolidate control over the country, and the country likely to continue declining.
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The Myanmar coup has led to ethnic rebel politics and civil resistance, with the Tatmadaw cracking down on dissent and the ASEAN community failing to find a permanent solution to the crisis.
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The military coup in Myanmar in 2021 was foreseeable due to domestic political dynamics and misperceptions of the hybrid civilian-military government, leading to a multifront civil war and no peace solution.
Myanmar’s Menu of Electoral Manipulation: Self- and External Legitimation after the 2021 Coup
Myanmar's military is using a retrograde toolbox to create legitimacy through brutal tactics, but success depends on domestic, regional, and international recognition.
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Myanmar ethnic minorities' diverse responses to the 2021 military coup varied, with some joining the alliance and others declining or accepting junta offers, influenced by civil society relations and military strength.
Myanmar Political Instability: A Threat to Southeast Asia Stability
Myanmar's political instability, caused by the military coup and arrests of pro-democracy leaders, threatens Southeast Asia's regional security and ASEAN unity.
Democracy in Myanmar: The failure of another Asian democracy in late modernity
Democracy in Myanmar remains an impossible dream due to a lack of political stability, human rights violations, and a lack of international support.
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