Do legal abortions reduce crime?

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The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime Rates

Introduction to Legalized Abortion and Crime Reduction

The relationship between legalized abortion and crime rates has been a subject of extensive research and debate. The hypothesis, primarily popularized by Donohue and Levitt (2001), suggests that the legalization of abortion in the early 1970s contributed significantly to the reduction in crime rates observed in the 1990s. This article synthesizes findings from multiple studies to provide a comprehensive overview of whether legal abortions reduce crime.

Evidence Supporting the Crime Reduction Hypothesis

Donohue and Levitt's Findings

Donohue and Levitt's seminal work posits that legalized abortion led to a decrease in crime by reducing the number of individuals born into adverse conditions that predispose them to criminal behavior. Their analysis indicated that crime rates fell significantly in the 1990s, attributing a 17.5% overall crime reduction from 1998 to 2014 to legalized abortion, with violent crime decreasing by 47% and property crime by 33% during this period. This hypothesis is supported by further empirical evidence showing that states with higher abortion rates experienced earlier and more substantial declines in crime .

Cross-Country Evidence

Extending the analysis beyond the United States, a study examining 16 Western European countries found a significant negative impact of abortion rates on crime, particularly homicide and theft. This cross-country evidence aligns with Donohue and Levitt's findings, suggesting that the legalization of abortion contributes to crime reduction by decreasing the number of potential offenders.

Contradictory Findings and Criticisms

Methodological Concerns

Despite the compelling evidence, some studies have raised methodological concerns. For instance, one study identified coding errors in Donohue and Levitt's regressions and argued that correcting these errors weakened the results significantly. Another study found no meaningful association between abortion and age-specific crime rates when analyzing data with different specifications.

Period Effects and Omitted Variables

Critics also argue that the observed crime reduction may be influenced by other factors, such as the crack cocaine epidemic. One study highlighted that the peak of the crack epidemic coincided with the period analyzed by Joyce (2003), which may have confounded the results. When extending the analysis to cover the entire lives of the cohorts, the negative relationship between abortion and crime became evident, suggesting that earlier findings might have been affected by omitted variable bias .

Case Study: Romania

The case of Romania provides additional insights. The abolition of abortion in 1966 and its subsequent legalization in 1989 had significant effects on birth rates and crime. The study found that while the number of births per month doubled and then decreased by about a third, the effects on crime rates were significant but driven by cohort size rather than selection effects .

Conclusion

The relationship between legalized abortion and crime reduction is complex and multifaceted. While substantial evidence supports the hypothesis that legalized abortion contributes to lower crime rates, methodological concerns and alternative explanations highlight the need for cautious interpretation. Overall, the preponderance of evidence suggests that legal abortions can reduce crime, primarily by decreasing the number of individuals born into circumstances that increase the likelihood of criminal behavior. However, further research is necessary to fully understand the underlying mechanisms and to address the criticisms raised by various studies.