Are Dementia Rates in the US Declining?

Are dementia rates in the US declining?

Check out this answer from Consensus:

The evidence suggests that dementia rates in the United States are indeed declining. This trend is likely influenced by factors such as increased educational attainment and improved management of cardiovascular risk factors. However, variations exist among different demographic groups, and continued monitoring is essential to understand and address these disparities. Overall, the decline in dementia rates is a positive development, but it underscores the need for ongoing public health efforts to sustain and further this trend.

The question of whether dementia rates in the United States are declining is of significant interest due to its implications for public health planning and resource allocation. Recent studies have investigated trends in dementia incidence and prevalence over the past few decades, providing insights into whether these rates are indeed decreasing.

Key Insights

• Decline in Dementia Incidence and Prevalence:
  • Several studies have reported a decline in the incidence and prevalence of dementia in the United States over recent decades. For instance, the incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per decade from 1988 to 20151. Similarly, the prevalence of dementia among those aged 65 or older decreased from 11.6% in 2000 to 8.8% in 20122 4. Another study found a relative decline of about 2.4% per year for dementia prevalence and 1.9% for dementia incidence from 2000 to 20166.
• Role of Education:
  • Increased educational attainment has been associated with the decline in dementia rates. Studies have shown that more years of education correlate with a lower risk of dementia, and the average years of education have increased significantly over time2 6 8.
• Short-Term Trends:
  • Short-term studies also support the trend of declining dementia prevalence. For example, the prevalence of probable dementia declined by 1.4% to 2.6% per year from 2011 to 2015, with declines concentrated among women, non-Hispanic white and black groups, and those without vascular conditions or risk factors3.
• Geographical and Demographic Variations:
  • While overall trends indicate a decline, there are variations based on geography and demographics. Some studies have noted persistently high rates among minority groups, especially of Hispanic origin, which may not have experienced the same declines as other groups3 8.
• Global Context:
  • The decline in dementia rates is not unique to the United States. Similar trends have been observed in other high-income countries, suggesting a broader pattern of decreasing dementia incidence and prevalence in these regions1 9 10.

Are dementia rates in the US declining?

Jennifer A Deal has answered Near Certain

An expert from Johns Hopkins University in Epidemiology, Public Health

The burden of dementia in the United States is calculated as the proportion of people in the United States who have dementia at a given time.  This proportion is called the ‘prevalence’. Because the number of older adults who are at risk for developing dementia will grow substantially in the coming years, the burden of dementia will also increase dramatically. There is no doubt that the number of people living with dementia will increase in the coming years.

However, there are some studies that have looked at how the prevalence of dementia (also sometimes referred to as ‘prevalence rates’) in a population has changed over time. One concern when comparing the prevalence of dementia from two different time periods is that age, which is a very strong predictor of dementia, may differ between the two time periods.  If so, the prevalence of dementia in one time period may seem greater than the prevalence of dementia in another time period, only because there are a greater proportion of older adults in the first time period.  This concern may be overcome through a technique called age standardization (also called age adjustment), in order to answer the question, “If both time periods had the same proportion of older adults, how would the prevalence of dementia compare?”  From several studies in the United States and around the world, there is some evidence to suggest that the age-adjusted prevalence of dementia in older adults is now less than for prior generations.  There is also evidence from several studies that the incidence (that is, the new cases of dementia) is also less now than for prior generations. An important implication of these findings is that dementia may be being delayed until older age. It is thought that better management of cardiovascular risk factors and/or better education may be the reason for this trend. However, despite this observation, as the absolute number of older adults continues to increase in the coming years, so will the number of persons living with dementia continue to rise.

Are dementia rates in the US declining?

C Fox has answered Likely

An expert from National Health Service in Psychiatry

Knowledge in the population, better healthcare- but not by much

Are dementia rates in the US declining?

Antony Bayer has answered Near Certain

An expert from Cardiff University in Alzheimer’s Disease

Dementia

At any given age, the rate of dementia has fallen in recent years – but because of the steady increase in numbers of people reaching advanced old age (the age most at risk), the total number of people with dementia has continued to increase, though not as fast as had been predicted.

Are dementia rates in the US declining?

S Todd has answered Near Certain

An expert from Western Health and Social Care Trust in Medicine

I agree with Antony.

Several recent studies, from the US, the UK and Europe, have demonstrated lower incidence rates now compared to 20 or 30 years ago. That means the number of new cases of dementia developing over a particular timespan, usually one year. This is what is reported in the CNN article.

However, the prevalence of dementia continues to increase – that is the total number of people with dementia at any one time. This is due to the increasing number of people living into ‘old old’ age. Age is a major risk factor for developing dementia and one we can do little to counter. The prevalence of dementia is not increasing as fact as predicted from the population studies of 20 to 30 years ago as the incidence has been declining in the interim.

Are dementia rates in the US declining?

John Goss has answered Near Certain

An expert from University of Canberra in Economics, Global Health

A number of studies for the Netherlands, the US, the UK and France have shown that the age-specific dementia incidence rates have declined in recent years. We are not entirely sure why, but it is encouraging news. Of course the number of people living with dementia is still increasing because of overall population growth and the ageing of the population.