Check out this answer from Consensus:
Obesity can indeed be predicted from childhood using a combination of factors including BMI, parental obesity, early weight gain, socioeconomic status, and genetic markers. Early identification of at-risk children through predictive models and risk assessment frameworks can facilitate timely interventions, potentially reducing the prevalence of obesity in adulthood. Future research should continue to refine these predictive models and explore additional factors that may contribute to obesity risk.
Obesity is a growing public health concern worldwide, with significant implications for both individual health and healthcare systems. Understanding whether obesity can be predicted from childhood is crucial for developing early intervention strategies. This article explores the predictive factors of obesity from childhood to adulthood, drawing on findings from multiple research studies.
Predictive Factors of Childhood Obesity
Body Mass Index (BMI)
Body Mass Index (BMI) is a widely used measure to predict future obesity. A systematic review and meta-analysis found that obese children and adolescents are significantly more likely to remain obese into adulthood. Specifically, around 55% of obese children continue to be obese in adolescence, and approximately 80% of obese adolescents remain obese in adulthood1. Another study confirmed that childhood BMI is a strong predictor of adult obesity, with a higher BMI in childhood correlating with increased obesity risk later in life4.
Parental Influence
Parental obesity is another critical factor. Research indicates that children with at least one obese parent are at a higher risk of becoming obese adults. The risk is particularly pronounced in older children, with the likelihood of adult obesity increasing significantly if the child is obese and has obese parents6. Additionally, maternal factors such as pre-pregnancy BMI and maternal smoking during pregnancy have been shown to influence the child’s risk of obesity5 7.
Early Childhood Weight Gain
Rapid weight gain during infancy and early childhood is also a predictor of later obesity. Studies have shown that weight gain in the first year of life and between ages 3 to 6 years is associated with higher fat mass and BMI in young adulthood8 10. This suggests that early weight gain patterns can be indicative of future obesity risk.
Socioeconomic and Environmental Factors
Socioeconomic status and environmental factors play a role in predicting obesity. Lower family income and lack of breastfeeding have been associated with higher obesity rates in adulthood2 4. These factors highlight the importance of considering the broader context in which a child grows up when assessing obesity risk.
Genetic Factors
Genetic predispositions also contribute to obesity risk. Specific genetic markers have been identified that, when combined with other factors like childhood BMI and maternal BMI, can improve the prediction of adult obesity4. However, the incremental benefit of including genetic data in predictive models is relatively small compared to more easily measurable factors like BMI and family history.
Predictive Models and Approaches
Machine Learning Models
Recent advancements in machine learning have enabled the development of predictive models using electronic health records (EHR). These models can predict obesity with a high degree of accuracy by analyzing data from the first two years of life, such as weight-for-length z-scores and BMI3. This approach reduces the need for extensive data collection and can be a valuable tool for clinicians.
Risk Assessment Frameworks
A multifactor risk assessment framework that includes both fixed (e.g., birth weight, absence of breastfeeding) and modifiable factors (e.g., childhood activity level, parental obesity) has been shown to identify a greater proportion of children at risk for future obesity compared to BMI alone2. This comprehensive approach allows for more targeted interventions.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
C M Wright has answered Unlikely
An expert from University of Glasgow in Nutrition, Epidemiology, Pediatrics
The true answer is yes and no. The longitudinal studies cited below have shown that those who are obese (or overweight) as children and particularly as teenagers are much more likely to go on to be obese, at least as young adults, than healthy weight children, but still between 30-50% did not go on to be obese. However obesity is much commoner in adults than children and in those studies the great majority (87-95%) of obese adults had not been obese children or teenagers and only 25-40% had even been overweight. So yes, you can predict that an overweight or obese child is more likely to go on to be obese, but the great majority of the 25% or more of adults who are now obese were a healthy weight in childhood and could not have been identified as being at risk.
Power, C., Lake, J.K., & Cole, T.J. 1997. Body mass index and height from childhood to adulthood in the 1958 British birth cohort 1-3. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 66, 1094-1101
Venn, A.J., Thomson, R.J., Schmidt, M.D., Cleland, V.J., Curry, B.A., Gennat, H.C., & Dwyer, T. 2007. Overweight and obesity from childhood to adulthood: a follow-up of participants in the 1985 Australian Schools Health and Fitness Survey. Med.J Aust., 186, (9) 458-460 available from: PM:17484707
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Helen Sweeting has answered Likely
An expert from University of Glasgow in Public Health
I refer to this publication: Simmonds et al (2016) Predicting adult obesity from childhood obesity : A systematic review and meta-analysis. Obesity reviews. pp. 95-107.
Which says:“Obese children and adolescents were around five times more likely to be obese in adulthood than those who were not obese. Around 55% of obese children go on to be obese in adolescence, around 80% of obese adolescents will still be obese in adulthood and around 70% will be obese over age 30.”
But also goes on to say “However, 70% of obese adults were not obese in childhood or adolescence, so targeting obesity reduction solely at obese or overweight children needs to be considered carefully as this may not substantially reduce the overall burden of adult obesity”
I take this to mean that while obese children are more likely to grow up to be obese, they will be joined by others who become obese having not been obese as children.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Genna Hymowitz has answered Likely
An expert from Stony Brook University in Obesity, Psychology
Obesity is a complex disease with many possible etiological, contributory and maintenance factors; so the answer to the question posed above is not a simple one. Although studies do suggest that individuals with obesity in childhood are at an increased risk of developing obesity in adulthood, most individuals with obesity in adulthood did not have obesity in childhood (Llewellyn, et al, 2016), suggesting the need to continue to evaluate and consider other predictive factors that occur in young adulthood and adulthood such as endocrinological changes during pregnancy, and mid-life (Melzer, Shutz, 2010; Al-Safi, Polotsky, 2015) in combination with lifestyle changes (e.g. sleep, nutritional intake, increased sedentary behavior; Hall, et al., 2008) and the onset of other medical conditions and treatment for these medical conditions (e.g. hypothyroidism, PCOS, depression etc.).
Al-Safi, Z.A., Polotsky, A.J. (2015). Obesity and Menopause. Best Practice and Research Clinical Obstectrics and Gynaecology,29, 548-553. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpobgyn.2014.12.002
Hall, M.H., Muldoon, M.F, Jennings, J.R., Buysse, D.J, Flory, J.D., Manuk, S.B. (2008). Self-reported sleep duration is associated with the metabolic syndrome in midlife adults. Sleep. https://doi.org/10.1093/sleep/31.5.635
Llewellyn, A., Simmonds, M., Owen, C., Duffy, S., & Woolacott, N. (2016). Childhood obesity as a predictor of morbidity in adulthood: A systematic review and metaanalysis. Obesity Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1111/obr.12316
Melzer, K.,Schutz, Y. (2010). Pre-pregnancy and pregnancy predictors of obesity. International Journal of Obesity, 35, S44-S52.
Mozaffarian, D., Hao, T., Rimm, E.B., Willet, W.C., Hu, F.B. (2011). Changes in diet and lifestyle and long term weight gain in women and men. The New England Journal of Medicine. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1014296
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Özgür Pirgon has answered Near Certain
An expert from Suleyman Demirel University in Endocrinology, Pediatrics
SLEEP DISORDERS IN CHILDHOOD OBESITY
Causes of childhood obesity include genetic predisposition, the environmental and cultural structure of society and the socio-economic level. Traditionally, reasons for childhood obesity have been cited as high calorie eating habits and a sedentary lifestyle. Recent studies have revealed a relationship of obesity with sleep disorders, as sleep is the main determinant of hormonal disorders, metabolic changes, and lifestyle.
Sleep fragmentation develops associated with depression, insomnia, respiratory problems during sleep, restless legs syndrome (RLS), and other environmental factors in the form of deteriorated sleep integrity. Sleep disorders such as chronic lack of sleep, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and imbalance in the circadian rhythm have often been reported in obese paediatric patients. Chronic lack of sleep is often seen in children, and according to some national survey results, 27% of school-aged children and 45% of adolescents sleep for less than the recommended sleep durations. The sleep pattern is known to contribute to increased metabolic risk later in life. Sleep quality is closely related to factors such as obesity, diabetes and hypertension, which significantly increase the cardiovascular risk.
Observational studies support that the effects of sleep disorders on obesity are stronger in children than in adults. There is increasing evidence that a shorter time spent in bed and low sleep quality causing sleep disorders are a new risk factor for childhood obesity. Sleep disorders such as interrupted sleep and imbalanceare now known to increase obesity and insulin resistance.
Although it has been understood from many recent epidemiological studies that there is a relationship between short sleep duration in early childhood and weight gain and obesity, the relationship of other components of sleep and obesity is a subject which has not been greatly studied.
Interventions to prevent and treat the current epidemic of obesity must include individual behavior changes and sleep education, and it is important that these changes are supported by a psychoeducational program. New treatment models can be provided for sleep-focussed interventions to prevent obesity and mechanisms can be defined to contribute to understanding the multiple facets of sleep patterns rather than sleep duration alone.
Ozgur Pirgon, MD
Professor of Pediatrics
Department of Pediatrics
Division of Pediatric Endocrinology & Diabetes
S.Demirel University,Faculty of Medicine
32260 Isparta, Turkiye
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Richard L Atkinson has answered Near Certain
An expert from Virginia Commonwealth University in Endocrinology, Obesity
The question is ambivalent. A child who is obese has a high chance of being obese in adulthood. However, a large majority of adults who are obese were not obese as children. So it depends on the perspective. Programs aimed at the whole population to prevent obesity are not likely to be cost effective (almost all studies show they are not successful). Studies to treat obese/overweight children would appear to be more rational, but virtually all show little success and what success there is is predominantly “statistical”, not clinical success.
Llewellyn A, Simmonds M, Owen CG, Woolacott N. Childhood obesity as a predictor of morbidity in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Obes Rev. 2016 Jan;17(1):56-67. doi: 10.1111/obr.12316. Epub 2015 Oct 6.
Simmonds M, Llewellyn A, Owen CG, Woolacott N. Predicting adult obesity from childhood obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Obes Rev. 2016 Feb;17(2):95-107. doi: 10.1111/obr.12334. Epub 2015 Dec 23.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Erik Hemmingsson has answered Near Certain
An expert from The Swedish School of Sport and Health Sciences in Obesity
Most certainly it can. Here are some new findings from our group on the topic.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Jessica M Robbins has answered Extremely Unlikely
An expert from Drexel University in Epidemiology
We can identify many risk factors for obesity–things that are associated with obesity. But there is no one factor, or combination of factors, that inevitably leads to obesity. There are many, many things that can affect the future of a child. You cannot predict any individual’s future obesity.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Jian Liu has answered Likely
An expert from Brock University in Epidemiology
Obesity in adulthood can be attributed to many different factors, however, when individuals are overweight or obese in their childhood, particularly for those who were born from mothers with diabetes during pregnancy, are at an increased risk for obesity in their adulthood.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Edward Archer has answered Near Certain
An expert from EvolvingFX in Physiology, Nutrition, Epidemiology, Exercise Physiology, Artificial Intelligence
My research unequivocally demonstrated that obesity is the result of non-genetic evolutionary processes (i.e., accumulative maternal effects) and physical inactivity-induced increments in energy intake. These factors can be assessed in childhood and used to accurately predict obesity in adolescence and adulthood.
Please see:
Progress in Cardiovascular Diseases: The Contributions of ‘Diet’, ‘Genes’, and Physical Activity to the Etiology of Obesity: Contrary Evidence and Consilience
Mayo Clinic Proceedings: The Childhood Obesity Epidemic as a Result of Nongenetic Evolution: The Maternal Resources Hypothesis
Frontier in Physiology: Cell-Specific ‘Competition for Calories’ Drives Asymmetric Nutrient-Energy Partitioning, Obesity, and Metabolic Diseases in Human and Non-Human Animals
The New Scientist: The mother of all problems
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Tim Olds has answered Unlikely
An expert from University of South Australia in Epidemiology
There are several factors in early childhood which are significant predictors of adult obesity. The most important is genetics: fat parents tend to have fat children. However, because children only have, on average, 50% of their genes with each parent, the correlation between the parent’s body mass index and the child’s is relatively weak. In our recent study, parental BMI explained about 8% of the differences in children’s BMI. Studies comparing identical twins reared together and apart show that environment (diet, physical activity) plays a big role in fatness.
Other factors which are predictive are:
- Birthweight: heavy babies (>4 kg) are 46% more likely to be obese than normal weight babies (2.5-4 kg). Low birthweight makes no difference.
- Socio-economic status: kids from poorer, less educated families (at least in developed countries) are much more likely end up as obese adults.
But at the moment all of these factors together still can only weakly predict whether a child is likely to become obese as an adult. Ultimately, obesity is a matter of energy in and energy out, diet and activity, and those vary from person to person.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Robert A Pretlow has answered Near Certain
An expert from eHealth International in Obesity
Obese children tend to become obese adolescents and 80% of obese adolescents become obese adults. Food is used as a coping mechanism, e.g. for stress relief, which can develop into an eating addiction. Once this behavior becomes established in a child/adolescent, it is almost certain that it will persist into adulthood.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Sandra Passmore has answered Likely
An expert from Services for Education UK in Education, Health, Nutrition
Presume the question is Can adult obesity be predicted from childhood? In which the answer is likely but not certain. Obesity is a complex (and simple) issue. In the simplest terms it’s because someone consumes more calories than they expend and over time this excess accumulates and is stored as excess fat. The reasons for this are complex though – see the Foresight report https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/reducing-obesity-future-choices
However many studies have shown that parental weight status and obesity levels have a strong influence on childhood obesity levels. Obese children can and do change their lifestyles when they get older and then have BMI in 20-25 range. equally healthy weight children can become obese adults. However if you are overweight or obese as a child you are more likely to be overwight or obese as an adult
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Kayla de la Haye has answered Near Certain
An expert from University of Southern California in Health
Trajectories for biological and behavioral risk factors for excess weight (e.g., eating habits) are established early in life. Risk for overweight can be detected in the first couple years of life based on excess weight and weight-for-length trajectories, and this has been found to predict obesity in later childhood and adulthood (see Guo, Wu, Chumlea, & Roche, 2002; Nader et al, 2006).
References:
https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/76/3/653/4677448
http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/118/3/e594.short?casa_token=Xue0AXk-GBMAAAAA:8324Icb4JEY4R4LwPsQYbemdqSktLZkhXUIjzM4NKDsUISi6zyqt0PIEV–gwGolWOnd5X71j9FJ
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Ashlesha Datar has answered Likely
An expert from University of Southern California in Obesity, Economics
A recent meta-analysis published in Obesity Reviews in 2016 reports that “Obese children and adolescents were around five times more likely to be obese in adulthood than those who were not obese.”
Simmonds M, Llewellyn A, Owen CG, Woolacott N. Predicting adult obesity from childhood obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Obes Rev. 2016 Feb;17(2):95-107. doi: 10.1111/obr.12334. Epub 2015 Dec 23. Review. PubMed PMID: 26696565.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Gregor Starc has answered Likely
An expert from University of Ljubljana in Kinesiology, Obesity, Exercise Physiology, Motor Learning
Our research finings are showing that it is almost certain for an obese child to become an obese adult but it is not certain at all that a non-obese child will grow into a non-obese adult. The adult outcome largely depends on environmental factors, predominantly linked to physical inactivity during childhood and adolescence.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Marian Levy has answered Likely
An expert from University of Memphis in Nutrition
The key word here is “predicted.” Obese children have a higher risk of becoming obese adolescents and adults due to factors involving genetic predisposition and obesogenic environments. However, if the obese/overweight child’s environment changes, with adults who model and provide opportunities for healthy food and physical activity, then healthy weight can be achieved.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Fawaz Mzayek has answered Unlikely
An expert from University of Memphis in Epidemiology
Childhood obesity is influenced by many factors, including genetic, behavioral, cultural, socio-economic, and environmental ones. While some of these influences may change from childhood to adulthood others, like genetic and cultural factors, usually don’t. Also, adverse intrauterine exposures are known to have long-term effects on the individual’s health and disease susceptibility, including obesity. All this make childhood obesity likely, but not necessarily, to continue into adulthood.
It should be noted, however, that the opposite is not true, .i.e., childhood leanness does not predict adulthood leanness. A recent, comprehensive review by Simmonds et al. found that 70% of obese adults were not obese during their childhood.
Taken together, the above arguments indicate that, overall, adulthood obesity is unlikely to be predicted from childhood obesity.
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
J Logue has answered Likely
An expert from University of Glasgow in Obesity
The answer is yes and no. A large study (just published today in the New England journal of medicine) looking at routine records from children in Germany showed that having a body mass in the obesity range as a young child was strongly associated with having a body mass in the obesity range as an older teenager. Even high birth weight is associated with obesity as an older teenager (and presumably an adult). The difficultly comes as most adults with overweight and obesity did not have obesity as a child. People who are currently adults were children at a tome of generally lower levels of obesity so that may be the explanation for this. There are not many research studies that have weights from children and have followed people through to adulthood, so we do have have good data on what the childhood risk factors are for adulthood obesity (prediction).
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Mikael Fogelholm has answered Likely
An expert from University of Helsinki in Nutrition, Obesity, Public Health
I am referring to the paper: Simmonds et al (2016) Predicting adult obesity from childhood obesity : A systematic review and meta-analysis. Obesity reviews. pp. 95-107. Obese children have a very high likelihood of being obese as adults, the later (adolescence vs. earlier childhood) obesity is observed, the higher the likelihood. However, most obese adults have never been obese children. Hence, absence of obesity (= normal weight) in childhood does not predict normal weight in adulthood. The truthfulness of the claim “Can obesity be predicted from childhood” in the end depends on how you look at his question. Obese child/adolescent –> very likely (>70%) to to obese adults; normal-weight child –> may or may not be obese adult (perhaps 40-50%).
Can obesity be predicted from childhood?
Naveed Sattar has answered Likely
An expert from University of Glasgow in Obesity, Medicine
generally the evidence shows that those who are more overweight or obese as children, are more likely to be so when adults given weight gain generally continues BUT there are important caveats to this – we looked at this issue in a well cited BMJ paper stemming from the seminal ALSPAC cohort in 2010.
1: Lawlor DA, Benfield L, Logue J, Tilling K, Howe LD, Fraser A, Cherry L, Watt P, Ness AR, Davey Smith G, Sattar N. Association between general and central adiposity in childhood, and change in these, with cardiovascular risk factors in adolescence: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2010 Nov 25;341:c6224. doi:10.1136/bmj.c6224. PubMed PMID: 21109577; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC2992109.
Whilst we found most did remain obese, many who were overweight or obese at aged 9-12 reverted to normal weight by ages 15-16 due, we believe to to greater rise in their heights.
The numbers in the table for this paper are informative.
Naveed Sattar, Professor of Metabolic Medicine, University of Glasgow