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While it is technically feasible to achieve deep decarbonization without nuclear power, doing so presents significant challenges. The limited potential of renewable energies, economic constraints, and the need for substantial energy storage capacity are major hurdles. Nuclear energy, with its proven track record and potential for technological innovation, remains a critical component of the global decarbonization strategy. A balanced approach that includes a mix of renewable and firm low-carbon resources, supported by flexible policies and investments, is essential for achieving long-term climate goals.
The urgency to address climate change has never been more pressing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has highlighted the critical need to limit global warming to 1.5°C to avoid catastrophic environmental impacts. As nations strive to meet their commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the role of nuclear energy in achieving deep decarbonization has come under scrutiny. This article explores whether the world can decarbonize without relying on nuclear power, drawing insights from recent research.
The Role of Nuclear Energy in Decarbonization
Nuclear energy has historically played a significant role in providing low-carbon electricity. It currently accounts for a substantial portion of global low-carbon electricity generation, alongside hydropower. Over the past six decades, nuclear power has prevented over 60 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions, demonstrating its potential in mitigating climate change4. However, the future of nuclear energy is uncertain, with many advanced economies experiencing a decline in new investments and an increase in reactor shutdowns4.
Feasibility of Decarbonization Without Nuclear Power
Several studies have examined the feasibility of achieving deep decarbonization without nuclear power. For instance, research focusing on Japan suggests that it is technically possible to achieve significant decarbonization by 2050 through energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon electricity, and electrification of end-use sectors2. This approach could also enhance energy security by reducing dependency on fossil fuel imports. However, in the mid-term, the limited potential of renewable energies may necessitate the continued use of nuclear power to maintain energy security and reduce carbon intensity2.
Challenges and Alternatives
The transition to a low-carbon energy system without nuclear power presents several challenges. Large-scale renewable energy systems, such as wind and solar, face material, land, and economic constraints that could limit their potential for global decarbonization4. Additionally, the integration of variable renewable resources requires substantial energy storage capacity, which may not be economically sustainable for developing countries4.
Despite these challenges, there are promising alternatives. The next wave of nuclear energy technology, including advanced reactors and improved fuel cycle technologies, holds potential for facilitating deep decarbonization3. However, realizing this potential requires overcoming barriers related to economics, regulatory clarity, and supply chain security3.
The Importance of Firm Low-Carbon Resources
Firm low-carbon resources, such as nuclear power, natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration, and bioenergy, play a crucial role in reducing electricity costs and ensuring reliable power generation. Research indicates that the availability of these resources can lower electricity costs by 10% to 62% in fully decarbonized scenarios5. As emissions limits become more stringent, the installed capacity of various resources changes, highlighting the need for a diverse energy portfolio and flexible policy support5.
Can the world decarbonise without nuclear power?
Dennis Hartmann has answered Unlikely
An expert from University of Washington in Climatology
It would be much harder to reduce carbon emissions without nuclear power. Safer and more efficient nuclear power plant designs are now available.
Can the world decarbonise without nuclear power?
Adriana Gomez-Sanabria has answered Unlikely
An expert from International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Energy Systems, Environmental Science, Climate science
No, nuclear power places a central role in the decarbonization of the energy systems. IPCC 1.5°C report projects and increase of nuclear energy of on average 2.5 times from today’s level by 2050. However, nuclear disasters are also well known. Therefore, there is hesitation on the adoption this source of energy in many countries. It is needed to further strengthen nuclear safety
Can the world decarbonise without nuclear power?
Grant Wilson has answered Likely
An expert from Birmingham University in Chemical Engineering
In the long-run probably yes, however, the question is one of timing and why certain countries with a viable nuclear sector would wish to do so.
Can the world decarbonise without nuclear power?
Aysha Fleming has answered Likely
An expert from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Climatology, Agricultural Science, Sociology
Yes renewable energy and energy storage is available and can be used and developed.
Can the world decarbonise without nuclear power?
Roger Jones has answered Unlikely
An expert from Victoria University in Climatology, Environmental Science, Economics
It needs what it has now. Can nuclear power be accelerated safely at the rate needed? No. It is niche. It will be outcompeted by other forms of energy in terms of price, safety and public acceptance.
Can the world decarbonise without nuclear power?
Steven Sherwood has answered Likely
An expert from UNSW Sydney in Climatology, Atmospheric Science
Probably, but in my opinion nuclear power would be a useful transition technology for countries that do not have enough sunlight and wind compared to their population size. We could later phase it out as new technologies emerge such as nuclear fusion, steady improvements in energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage, etc. It is not needed in countries such as Australia that have plenty of renewable resources.
Can the world decarbonise without nuclear power?
Gab Abramowitz has answered Likely
An expert from UNSW Sydney in Climatology, Hydrology
Yes. It is already cheaper to massively oversupply with solar and wind in most countries than build nuclear infrastructure.
Can the world decarbonise without nuclear power?
Richard B. Rood has answered Unlikely
An expert from University of Michigan in Environmental Science, Climate science
It is theoretically possible to decarbonise without nuclear power. It could be much easier and occur sooner with nuclear power.