Check out this answer from Consensus:
While the sub-2-hour marathon remains a challenging goal, advancements in biomechanics, statistical modeling, historical analysis, and footwear technology provide a promising outlook. With continued research and innovation, the dream of a sub-2-hour marathon may soon become a reality.
The quest to break the 2-hour marathon barrier has captivated the athletic world, with scientists, athletes, and enthusiasts debating its feasibility. This article explores the various factors that could contribute to achieving this monumental feat, including biomechanical improvements, statistical predictions, historical trends, and technological advancements in footwear.
Biomechanical Improvements
Biomechanical enhancements play a crucial role in reducing the metabolic cost of running, which is essential for breaking the 2-hour marathon barrier. A study suggests that targeting the costs of forward propulsion and leg swing, along with unconventional drafting strategies, consistent tailwinds, and optimized shoe designs, could significantly reduce running times. For instance, running in shoes that are 100g lighter and utilizing drafting techniques could result in a time well below the 2-hour mark1.
Statistical Predictions
Predicting when the sub-2-hour marathon will be achieved involves complex statistical models. One study used a nonlinear limiting exponential model to estimate that the sub-2-hour marathon could be achieved by May 2032 with a 10% likelihood. This model also suggests that the limiting marathon times for males and females are 1:58:05 and 2:05:31, respectively, indicating a performance gap of 2.9% for males2.
Historical Trends
Analyzing historical trends in marathon running reveals that a sub-2-hour marathon may not be imminent. The average male-female performance gap in running events is currently 11.2%, but reducing the marathon time to below 2 hours would produce a performance gap of 12.9%, which is unprecedented. This suggests that breaking the 2-hour barrier would require a reversal of long-term trends in gender performance differences3.
Technological Advancements in Footwear
Advanced footwear technology has significantly impacted marathon performances. Eliud Kipchoge’s sub-2-hour marathon attempt in 2019, although not officially recognized, highlighted the potential of innovative shoe designs. Studies have shown that new running shoes with compliant and resilient midsole materials and stiff embedded plates can reduce the energetic cost of running by approximately 4%, making the sub-2-hour marathon more achievable4 9.
Physiological and Environmental Factors
Several physiological and environmental factors contribute to marathon performance. A mathematical model predicts that a male athlete with a maximal oxygen uptake greater than 85 mL·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹, running at a pace higher than 85% of their maximal oxygen uptake, could break the 2-hour barrier by 2026-2027. This athlete is likely to be from East Africa, particularly Ethiopia, and around 27 years old6.
Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible?
Ross Tucker has answered Likely
An expert from The Science of Sport in Sports Science, Physiology
I think that a sub-2 is definitely feasible yes. But it’s not imminent, which is the claim that has been made and which I would dispute. Nike have shown that you can even bypass the time barrier if you set up a contrived race where no barrier to performance exists other than physiology. In the real world, however, there are barriers to performance and they mean that the current improvement needed of just under 3 minutes is quite a long way off.
However, there is no physiological or other theoretical reason to suggest that the time is not possible. If the performance could improve from 2:15 to 2:06 and then to 2:04 and now to 2:02:57, then what would stop it getting faster? There is no reason to think we are right at the human limit, just yet. Certainly we must be getting closer, logically, but we are not there yet.
So yes, it’s feasible, but it will require a few more generations of athletes to get to it. If each generation can improve on the previous one by 30 seconds, then we are four to five generations away, and that is 20 to 25 years. That’s a lot to assume – there will be weaker generations, or generations where the conditions don’t line up perfectly, and which then miss the chance. So that’s why my estimate would be 30 to 35 years, and then we will see a sub-2 hour marathon.
Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible?
Simon Angus has answered Near Certain
An expert from Monash University in Complex Systems Science, Data Science, Economics
If one assumes that the systematic factors leading to the decline in marathon WR times since 1950 are unchanged, then a (robust) statistical analysis of the data would indicate a crossing point with 2 hours in the year 2033, with a 95% confidence interval of 2026 to 2040.
Can we expect such factors to continue? Yes. Finding time gains in the marathon WR arise from various channels including:
- The expansion of the genetic pool of individuals who might compete in long distance running and so be identified for further training (the pool expands with alleviation of poverty, improvements in communications and institutions etc.);
- Sports science discovery in the areas of training, nutrition, and pacing;
- Technological advance in the areas of clothing, footwear and data-gathering/measuring devices and analysis; and
- Psychological training/preparation of athletes (mental skills in handling extreme pain, performance anxiety, etc.).
None of these channels appear exhausted.
Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible?
Rodger Kram has answered Near Certain
An expert from University of Colorado Boulder in Biomechanics
If a race were to be organized, like Nike’s Breaking2, with elite human runners as pacers/windbreakers on a course shielded from wind (and with a tailwind for second half), the best 2:03 marathoners of today could run < 2:00. We outlined our argument in this paper.
Sports Med. 2017 Sep;47(9):1739-1750. doi: 10.1007/s40279-017-0708-0.
How Biomechanical Improvements in Running Economy Could Break the 2-hour Marathon Barrier.
Hoogkamer W, Kram R, Arellano CJ.
Abstract
A sub-2-hour marathon requires an average velocity (5.86 m/s) that is 2.5% faster than the current world record of 02:02:57 (5.72 m/s) and could be accomplished with a 2.7% reduction in the metabolic cost of running. Although supporting body weight comprises the majority of the metabolic cost of running, targeting the costs of forward propulsion and leg swing are the most promising strategies for reducing the metabolic cost of running and thus improving marathon running performance. Here, we calculate how much time could be saved by taking advantage of unconventional drafting strategies, a consistent tailwind, a downhill course, and specific running shoe design features while staying within the current International Association of Athletic Federations regulations for record purposes. Specifically, running in shoes that are 100 g lighter along with second-half scenarios of four runners alternately leading and drafting, or a tailwind of 6.0 m/s, combined with a 42-m elevation drop could result in a time well below the 2-hour marathon barrier.
Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible?
Timo Vuorimaa has answered Unlikely
An expert from Haaga-Helia University of Applied Sciences in Physiology
Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible? My answer is yes, but not before a big development step on shorter distances. If the rules and marathon routes maintain the same as now.
Recently, it has been published several record extrapolations based on the marathon records reached in past 20-30 years. These extrapolations show that the 2 h barrier on marathon seems to be achieved in around the year 2030-2035. If the world record progression will be the same as during the last 20 years. However, it is questionable if it will be.
One challenge is the speed reserve related running economy. To run economically on long distances a runner must have speed reserve. On other words, clearly faster running speed on shorter distances. But, how much faster? There are top marathon runners who came from shorter distances and there are top runners who have concentrated on marathon since junior age. Thus, it is difficult to evaluate how much speed reserve each top runner has had when doing his best marathon performance. Instead of this we can look at the big picture. If we look at the past marathon records and the records on long track races we can see that between the years 1980 – 1995 the 5000m world record pace (6,36 -6,54 m/s) has been from 15,2 to 15,9 % faster than the marathon world record pace (5,49 – 5,54 m/s) at the same year. In 2005 the same difference was 17,4 % (6,61 vs 5,63 m/s). In 2015 (and now) the difference is again 15,4 % (6,61 vs 5,72 m/s). Thus, to keep this big picture in balance the difference between world top marathon pace and the 5000m race pace should be somewhat 15 % or bigger. For 2 h marathon this means that the world top at 5000m should be 12:22 or better. This sounds very unlikely in next future.
After Los Angeles Olympics 1984 many talented runners especially from African countries concentrated on long track distances and the record development on 5000 and 10000m was rapid. The big marathon boom in these countries started later. This can be seen in the record development. Since 1995 the 5000m world record has improved less than 1 % while the marathon world record has developed by 3,2 %. During next 20 years better and faster runners will take marathon training seriously and the official marathon world record will certainly improve. However, to get on the 2h barrier there should be found runners who will be able to run shorter distances (e.g. 5000m) much faster than nowadays.
Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible?
William Roberts has answered Likely
An expert from University of Minnesota in Sports Science, Medicine
I think it is.
The times have been approaching 2 hours for some time.
Current record is 2:02:57, so will occur eventually when someone pulls off the race of a lifetime.
It may happen sooner with the Sub 2 project, but that attempt is utilizing vehicle drafting and other interventions.
I am not sure I would accept vehicle drafting as a real record.
They are clean athletes however.
That is my opinion.
Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible?
Andrew Cooke has answered Near Certain
An expert from Rothamsted Research in Biology, Environmental Science, Animal Pathology, Animal Production, Conservation Science
Kenyan Eliud Kipchoge set a new world record for men of 2:01:39 on September 16, 2018, at the 2018 Berlin Marathon. This time would only need to be reduced by 1:39 (1.15%) to be sub 2-hour. This time is also 1:59 quicker than the record that was standing in 2011.
Based on progression in techniques and technology, the genetic diversity of the human population, and increased access to sports training world wide, it seems very likely that a sub 2-hour time will be reached.
Given the length and nature of marathons, each is unique and conditions play a part. Weather, wind direction and speed, course surface, inclines, temperature, all play a part. The perfect conditions can take minutes of a time.
Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible?
Helmuth Haslacher has answered Near Certain
An expert from Medical University of Vienna in Medicine
Given the almost linear decline of running times since the change of the millennium (see figure at runnersworld.com), a sub 2 hour marathon might be reached in ~15 years.
Indeed, some (more or less successful) projects were already born (e.g. sub2hrs.com, Breaking2) that aimed to break this barrier by scientific means.
Is a sub 2-hour marathon possible?
Timothy Noakes has answered Likely
An expert from University of Cape Town in Sports Science, Medicine
Yes indeed it is possible. But in my opinion it will take another 20-30 years for the athletes to get there. In part this is because athletes need to believe it is possible. And they need to develop that belief from childhood.
At present athletes alive today believe that a 2:02 marathon is the ultimate. In 10 years they will believe 2:01 is the ultimate. And then in 20 years runners will begin to believe that it is possible to break 2:00.
That humans are probably able to run a 2:00 marathon today is shown by the staged event that produced a time just 20-odd seconds outside the time. In my view that 20 seconds reflects the fact that today’s runners don’t believe it is possible, quite yet.