This year there is a total of 7.9 billion humans around the world. In 1970 our population was only half what it is now. The human population has been on the rise for some time, but growth rates are now declining. How many humans will be alive when our population stops growing? Will we see this peak in world population within our lifetimes? We asked 4 experts in demography, ‘Will the world’s population stop growing in the next 50 years?’, here is what they said. This consensus is based on 4 experts answers from this question: Will the world’s population stop growing in the next 50 years?
How do we know what will happen to the human population?
It is impossible to predict the future with 100% accuracy. Instead, demographers use data on population sizes, mortality, fertility (and many other types of data) to develop ‘models’ or ‘projections’ which predict how a population will change in the future.
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👩👧👧 What are some projections for when the world population might peak? 📋 Do demographers use data on mortality and fertility to predict population changes?What are the models that predict our population will peak in the next 50 years?
Dr Anne Goujon, an expert in demography from the Austrian Academy of Sciences says “Some projections based on the pursuance of present trends do foresee a peak in the world population within the next 50 years, capitalizing on potential major improvements that could derive from mass education and the deployment of family planning. According to these scenarios, the population would peak around 2070 at a level of 9.7 billion and decline afterwards”. These projections were calculated by researchers at the Wittgenstein Centre for demography and global human capital.
Dr Tomas Sobotka, an expert in demography from the Austrian Academy of Sciences, says “The same peak population, but with an earlier peak date of 2064, is projected … by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)”.
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👨👩👧👦What factors do demographers use to create models for predicting population growth? 🤶What are some models that predict continued population growth beyond the next 50 years?What are the models that predict our population will still be on the rise?
Dr Thomas Wilson, an expert in demography from Melbourne University in Australia says “Although the rate of population growth is slowing, the World’s population is likely to still be growing by 2070 according to population projections published by the United Nations Population Division”.
Dr Tomas Sobotka says that the United Nations predicts that “the world population will continue growing until the end of this century, adding almost 3 billion people when compared with today” and that the “projection shows only a 27% chance that the world population will peak this century.” Dr Sobotka adds that another projection “by the US Census Bureau from 2020 envisions that global population will increase until the end of this century, reaching 10.75 billion in 2100.”
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🇺🇳Does the United Nations predict that the world population will continue to grow until the end of the century? 📊What projection does the US Census Bureau have for the global population by 2100?Why do these different models disagree?
Predicting what will happen in the future is a difficult task, and many factors can influence how the world’s population will change. For example, there are many factors which influence fertility rates in developing countries. Dr Wilson says “much depends on the future course of fertility rates. Some demographers think that fertility will decline faster than assumed by the United Nations because of progress in educating young women in developing countries. Higher levels of education are associated with lower fertility.”
There are many other factors at play. Dr Sobotka adds some more: “unpredictable future global environmental, economic and health shocks, could also bring about an earlier end of the world population growth.” He notes that “population projections do not allow an easy ‘Yes or No’ answer”
Despite these differences, the world population projections do have some commonalities, Dr Goujon summaries, “What all projections agree about is that the pace of population growth is likely to slow down over the course of the century.”
The takeaway: Human population growth is slowing down, but it is not clear when it will stop growing altogether.
Learn more with Consensus AI Academic Search Engine:
😒Why do different population growth models sometimes disagree in their predictions? 🎓Are higher levels of education associated with lower fertility rates? 🤔Is it possible for unpredictable global events to affect population growth projections? 📈Do population projections agree that the pace of population growth is likely to slow down?