Li Xiang-mei
2008
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Influential Citations
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Journal
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
Abstract
Dynamic prediction research on ecological footprint(EF)provides the making of strategy and pol- icies for regional sustainable development with scientific and theoretical basis.However,it is still at an ex- ploratory stage.In this paper,taking Wuhan City as an example,based on calculation of the long time series of EF from 1978 to 2004,an indicator system of socio-economic system was established and a EF dynamic prediction model was built by using the partial least square regression(PLS).The mechanism that each in- dicator influences the EF was analysed by using the VIP value.Results demonstrated that the EF of Wuhan City in the"11th Five-Year"plan period showed an upward trend,while the EF per capita would be 2.810 5 hm~2 at the end of"11th Five-Year"plan period,higher than the global ecological threshold(the EF per capita is 2.200 0 hm~2).According to the VIP value,the population,energy consumption and the tertiary industry were the most important factors.Recommendations on how to achieve the targets of"11th Five-Year"Plan in Wuhan City were proposed.It was showed that bringing scientific progress contribution and energy consumption into the indicator system would make up for the disavantage of EF concept that ig- nors the social,economic,technological factors in quantitative measurement.What's more,it was more ac- curate and precise to evaluate the influence of each indicator on the EF change by using the VIP value.The research made further perfection and improvement on the EF dynamic prediction.