Gokhan Karabulut, M. Bilgin, Ender Demir
Apr 18, 2020
Citations
7
Influential Citations
126
Citations
Quality indicators
Journal
Annals of Tourism Research
Abstract
We document the negative effect of pandemics on tourist arrivals by using data for 127 countries for the period of 2000-2018. This effect is valid only for the case of low-income economies. The findings will provide insights for the possible effects of COVID-19 on the tourism industry. Once we consider the change in “Discussion about Pandemics Index” from 2019 to the first quarter of 2020, the model estimations suggest a tourist arrival decrease of 20% in the whole sample and 29% in low-income economies. This in line with the forecasts of UNWTO (2020). However, it should also be noted that the effect of COVID-19 is hard to predict, as the world has not experienced such a global pandemic before. As long as the travel bans and border closures remain, the negative effect will get higher.