Global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system
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Advances in Global Eddy-Resolving Ocean Forecast Systems
Introduction to Eddy-Resolving Ocean Models
Eddy-resolving ocean models are critical tools for understanding and predicting ocean dynamics. These models have high horizontal resolution, typically around 1/10° to 1/16°, allowing them to capture mesoscale eddies and other fine-scale oceanic features. This article synthesizes recent advancements in global eddy-resolving ocean forecast systems, highlighting their configurations, performance, and applications.
Model Configurations and Performance
High-Resolution Simulations
Several high-resolution ocean models have been developed to improve the accuracy of ocean forecasts. For instance, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) model with 1/10° resolution has shown good agreement with satellite altimetry in terms of eddy energy distribution, although it faces challenges in the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current region. Similarly, the NEMO model with 1/16° resolution has demonstrated improved performance in representing large-scale circulation and mesoscale processes compared to lower-resolution models .
Data Assimilation Techniques
Data assimilation is a crucial component of these models, enhancing their predictive capabilities. The Naval Research Laboratory's Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) uses an optimum interpolation (OI) scheme to assimilate sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) data from multiple satellites, providing skillful forecasts for up to 30 days. The Copernicus Marine Service employs a reduced-order Kalman filter to assimilate various observational data, resulting in improved realism of ocean analyses and forecasts.
Evaluation and Validation
Comparison with Observations
Eddy-resolving models are rigorously evaluated against observational data to ensure their accuracy. The near-global eddy-resolving model developed by Australia's operational forecasting system has shown realistic variability in mean sea level (MSL), mixed layer depth (MLD), and sea surface temperature (SST), although it exhibits some systematic errors in MLD. The GLORYS12 reanalysis, with 1/12° resolution, has been assessed against 14 years of hydrographic observations, demonstrating good agreement in thermohaline structure and ocean heat content in the upper 700 meters.
Improvements Over Lower-Resolution Models
High-resolution models significantly outperform their lower-resolution counterparts. The CMCC's GLOB16 model, for example, has reduced biases in temperature and salinity, improved mass and heat transports, and better representation of fluxes through narrow straits compared to eddy-permitting and non-eddying configurations. Similarly, the HYCOM model has shown enhanced predictive skill for mesoscale variability and provides valuable boundary conditions for regional and coastal models.
Applications and Future Directions
Operational Forecasting Systems
Eddy-resolving models are integral to operational ocean forecasting systems. The Naval Oceanographic Office's real-time forecasting system and China's LICOM Forecast System (LFS) are examples of such applications, providing daily forecasts and demonstrating good performance in short-term oceanography forecasting . These systems are essential for various applications, including climate studies, marine navigation, and disaster response.
Climate Simulations
High-resolution ocean models also play a vital role in climate simulations. The NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has shown that resolving ocean fronts and eddies leads to significant impacts on large-scale climate simulations, including surface warming, sea-ice loss, and changes in ocean-atmosphere coupling. These findings underscore the importance of high-resolution models in understanding and predicting climate variability and change.
Conclusion
Global eddy-resolving ocean forecast systems represent a significant advancement in ocean modeling, providing more accurate and detailed predictions of ocean dynamics. Through high-resolution simulations, advanced data assimilation techniques, and rigorous validation against observations, these models have proven their value in both operational forecasting and climate research. As computational capabilities continue to improve, the future of ocean modeling looks promising, with even higher resolution and more sophisticated models on the horizon.
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