Is a 1M Increase in Global Sea-Level Dangerous for Society?

Is a 1m increase in global sea-level dangerous for society?

Check out this answer from Consensus:

A 1-meter increase in global sea level poses a significant danger to society, with far-reaching impacts on populations, economies, and ecosystems. Immediate and sustained efforts to mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects are crucial to minimizing these risks. Policymakers and stakeholders must prioritize actions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities to safeguard against the looming threat of sea-level rise.

The potential rise in global sea levels due to climate change poses a significant threat to human societies, particularly those in coastal regions. This article explores the dangers associated with a 1-meter increase in sea level, drawing on recent research to highlight the potential impacts on populations, economies, and ecosystems.

Impacts on Populations

A 1-meter rise in sea level could displace tens of millions of people, particularly in developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) analyses have shown that such an increase would inundate critical land areas, leading to severe economic and ecological damage in many regions1. Low-elevation coastal zones, which are home to a significant portion of the global population, are especially vulnerable to this threat2.

Economic Consequences

The economic ramifications of a 1-meter sea-level rise are profound. Coastal cities, ports, and infrastructure would face increased risks of flooding, erosion, and salinization. This would not only disrupt local economies but also have far-reaching effects on global trade and commerce. The cost of defending against these threats or relocating affected populations could be enormous3.

Environmental and Ecological Effects

The environmental impacts of a 1-meter sea-level rise are equally concerning. Coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and other critical ecosystems would be severely affected, leading to loss of biodiversity and degradation of natural habitats. Saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers could contaminate water supplies, further exacerbating the challenges faced by affected communities3.

Long-Term Threats

The long-term implications of sea-level rise extend beyond immediate physical and economic damages. Human-caused carbon dioxide emissions will continue to raise temperatures and sea levels for centuries, potentially leading to even higher sea levels in the future. This could result in the permanent inundation of many developed areas, particularly in Asia, where major cities and large populations are at risk4.

Is a 1m increase in global sea-level dangerous for society?

Martine Lizotte has answered Likely

An expert from Université Laval in Oceanography

Global sea-levels are rising as a consequence of ocean warming (thermal expansion), melting of the world’s major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica and smaller glaciers on land, as well as a decrease in the amount of water held beneath the land and in reservoirs above the land. Rising sea-levels will affect societies in different ways depending on where they live, with land topography and elevation being at the center of the preoccupations. According to a recent study (Kulp & Strauss 2019), 230 million people currently live by the coast, less than 1 m above the sea, increasing the vulnerability of these populations to flooding, storm surges, and contamination by salty waters of underground stores of fresh water for drinking and agricultural crops in coastal farming regions. Costs associated with the relocation of millions of people living near shorelines are astronomical. As such, adaptation strategies may include flood barriers to protect critical infrastructure (levees, dikes, seawalls), and floodproofing by elevating critical equipment and foundation systems.

Kulp, S.A., Strauss, B.H. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Nat Commun 10, 4844 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z

Is a 1m increase in global sea-level dangerous for society?

Robert  Steneck has answered Near Certain

An expert from University of Maine in Oceanography, Marine Biology

Yes – for low lying islands and cities. It sets a new sea level above which storm impacts will be greater.

Is a 1m increase in global sea-level dangerous for society?

Megan Cook has answered Likely

An expert from Ocean Exploration Trust in Oceanography

Yes, 1-meter rise would create big changes on many coastlines worldwide. Even a small increase can have devastating effects on coastal habitats and communities through destructive erosion, wetland flooding, freshwater and agricultural soil contamination with salt, and lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants.

Is a 1m increase in global sea-level dangerous for society?

Rodrigo Garcia del Campo has answered Near Certain

An expert from Centro Nacional de Biotecnologia in Ecology

Yes, indeed. Some human populations are based in areas near the seas, at very low altitude levels, so a minimum rise of the sea level (mainly because of the polar ice melted due to global warming) can lead to the destruction of many cities and flooding of human settlements.

Is a 1m increase in global sea-level dangerous for society?

Jessica Meeuwig has answered Likely

An expert from University of Western Australia in Ecology, Marine Science

“Dangerous” is a loaded word but the outcomes of a 1-metre rise in sea level catastrophic for those living in low lying areas. Pacific islanders are already contemplating leaving their homes as rising sea levels erode their shorelines. With rising sea-levels, we’ll see more flooding and erosion or our coastlines generally. Insurance companies are also already reconsidering how and to what degree they ensure properties in at risk areas.

Is a 1m increase in global sea-level dangerous for society?

Mark Schuerch has answered Near Certain

An expert from University of Lincoln in Geography

Sea-level rise impacts around the world will depend on the abililty of societies to adapt. Lower-income countries will be most affected by global sea-level rise. The danger of a 1-m sea level originates from water level setup during storm events, such as hurricanes. Storms that are dangerous already will reach further inland and be more dangerous to larger populations.