Is a Second Wave of COVID-19 Inevitable?

Check out this answer from Consensus:

The consensus across multiple studies indicates that a second wave of COVID-19 is highly likely due to factors such as the lifting of restrictions, the emergence of new variants, and waning immunity. The severity and timing of the second wave can vary, but effective preventive measures and preparedness are essential to mitigate its impact. Understanding the interplay between disease dynamics and social behavior is crucial for managing future waves of the pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact globally, and there is significant concern about the potential for a second wave of infections. This analysis synthesizes findings from multiple research papers to address whether a second wave of COVID-19 is inevitable.

Key Insights

• Inevitability of a Second Wave:
  • Many studies suggest that a second wave of COVID-19 is likely due to the lifting of restrictions and the ongoing evolution of the virus1 2 4 6 7 9 10.
  • The interaction between disease dynamics and social behavior, such as reduced adherence to preventive measures, can lead to a second wave2 4.
• Factors Contributing to a Second Wave:
  • The emergence of new variants, such as the Omicron variant, and waning immunity are significant factors that could drive subsequent waves5 7 10.
  • Socioeconomic factors, including urbanization, population density, and the proportion of older adults, can influence the timing and magnitude of a second wave7.
• Severity and Timing:
  • The second wave could be more severe than the first, with higher peaks in infection rates observed in some regions2 4 8.
  • The timing of the second wave varies, but historical data from other countries can provide insights into potential patterns7 10.
• Preventive Measures and Preparedness:
  • Effective preparation and response, including robust testing, contact tracing, and household quarantine, are crucial to managing and mitigating the impact of a second wave1 6.
  • Governments and stakeholders need to balance the relaxation of preventive measures with ongoing vigilance and readiness to reimpose restrictions if necessary1 3 6.

Is a second wave of COVID-19 inevitable?

Adam Kleczkowski has answered Likely

An expert from University of Strathclyde in Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Applied Mathematics

I do very much hope it can be avoided, but being realistic, I think we are going to see the virus still spreading over the next months, if not years. In an ideal world, we should be able to open shops, factories and care homes to such an extend that no significant increase in the number of cases occurs. Any new cases would be detected quickly and isolated, and all vulnerable people will be protected as needed. But real life does not work this way.

There are still many susceptible individuals and very possibly still (too) many infectious ones, possibly non-symptomatic and hence difficult to detect. Even in countries or regions that seem to have eradicated the disease, there is always a possibility that somebody will bring it from abroad once international travel is allowed. Thus, the best we can do is to engage in a strategy of “whack-a-mole” and try to stop the (hopefully small) outbreaks to stop spreading further.

I think that we are going to see a number of relatively small outbreaks, hopefully against a backdrop of a general decrease in the cases. However, my main concern at the moment is twofold. Firstly, that the current changes to the lockdown policies will move us above the R=1 threshold and once we are there, the increase could be very fast and hence difficult to contain. Secondly, and more importantly, that once we are in such a situation (with R above 1), it will be very difficult to put the country under the severe lockdown again. In such a situation we will probably need to come up with novel ways of increasing social distancing. Regional, and possibly more importantly, sectoral lockdowns will become important (like protecting care homes in a much better way). But also, that we will have to adapt to live with the virus for a long time.

I’ve written a longer answer you can read here on my blog.

Is a second wave of COVID-19 inevitable?

Jeremy Rossman has answered Uncertain

An expert from University of Kent in Virology, Infectious diseases

Lockdown is easing. People are returning to work and shops are lifting their shutters. But we don’t have a vaccine and we’re a long way from achieving herd immunity – so this new-found freedom is tainted with fear: fear of a second wave of infections.

Indeed, people are already talking about a “second wave” hitting China and Iran. But the concept of a second wave is flawed and creates dangerous misconceptions about the pandemic.

The idea of a second wave stems from the flawed comparison with the seasonality of the flu virus.

The flu comes in seasonal ‘waves’ but we don’t know if COVID-19 does yet

Early in the pandemic, many experts discussed the similarities between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus. They are both viruses that cause respiratory infections – mostly mild. Influenza is also the cause of most recent previous pandemics. From these similarities, it was tempting to assume that COVID-19 would behave similarly to a flu pandemic. Yet these are very different viruses with very different behaviour.

COVID-19 has a far greater fatality rate compared with the flu, along with a much higher rate of hospitalisations and severe infection. Also, influenza is a seasonal virus. Every year we see cases of the flu begin in early autumn, increase over the winter and then wind down as we approach summer. This repeats yearly, and so if a new strain of flu emerges we would probably have a first wave of infections during winter-spring, then the virus would come back in a second wave in autumn-winter the following year.

The most severe pandemic ever recorded was the so-called Spanish flu pandemic. During this pandemic, the virus infected the northern hemisphere during the spring of 1918, died down some during the summer of 1918 and then came back in greater force in the autumn of 1918. It is tempting to speculate that COVID-19 will decline or disappear during the summer, only to reappear as the weather gets colder. But we don’t know if COVID-19 is a seasonal virus.

The flu has lower transmission in the summer because the combination of higher humidity, increased UV light and people spending less time inside, close to each other. Some of these factors might also affect COVID-19, but we really don’t know to what extent.

Even if seasonal factors affect COVID-19 transmission, the spread of a new virus through a population that has no immunity will overwhelm any influence of seasonal factors. The 2009 swine flu pandemic virus and the 1918 pandemic virus were new viruses that people had no immunity to. As a result, the virus did not go away in the summer, though transmission was somewhat reduced. So we cannot expect that COVID-19 will behave as a seasonal virus and diminish over the summer only to return with a second wave in the autumn.

The first wave hasn’t ended

Aside from seasonality, there is another reason the idea of a second wave is flawed. The concept of a second wave implies that it is something inevitable, something intrinsic to how the virus behaves. It goes away for a bit, then comes back with a vengeance. But this idea fails to take into account the importance of ongoing preventative actions and portrays us as helpless and at the whim of this pathogen.

We are not between waves. We have new cases in the UK every day. We are in an ebb and flow of COVID-19 transmission that is continually affected by our precautionary actions.

Letting up on precautions will lead to an increase in cases. This is the new normal and what to expect until we have an effective vaccine with significant population uptake. Until then we have to depend on our actions to keep cases low – both now and in autumn.

The concept of a second wave portrays the pandemic as a force of nature that is beyond our control. But we have evidence from many countries that a strong public health system (consisting of widespread testing, contact tracing, isolation and health support) combined with public participation in safe behaviour (wearing face coverings, keeping physical distance, hand washing) is highly effective at minimising COVID-19 transmission.

We are not at the mercy of the virus, now or in the future. This is hopeful news, but it puts the burden of responsibility on all of us. We must keep fighting, but in doing so we should not fear an inevitable second wave.

I have adapted this answer from my original article in The Conversation

Is a second wave of COVID-19 inevitable?

Adrian Esterman has answered Unlikely

An expert from University of South Australia in Epidemiology

Speaking only in terms of the Australian situation we have been very lucky and haven’t even had much of a first wave. Being and island has helped us close our borders, and the rapid and effective public health measures taken by federal and state governments have not just “flattened the curve” but crushed it! Some countries have indeed seen a second wave of infections, mainly as a result of relaxing the lock down too quickly.

Australia is taking a much more careful and measured approach. The government’s three phase plan to relax restrictions appears to be working. We are just moving into the second phase and have so far not seen any surge in cases. If we continue on this way, keep up our surveillance testing for COVID-19, encourage people to download and use CovidSafe, and maintain social distancing and hand hygiene, then I think that there is a very low probability of a second wave in Australia.  Having said that, the recent demonstrations about black lives matters, does not help.

Is a second wave of COVID-19 inevitable?

Luz Alba Fornells Arentz has answered Likely

An expert from UFRJ in Virology

It´s almost certain that we will have a second wave, because the whorl not yet reached the herd’s immune response, that is, we do not yet have a minimum of 70% of those exposed to the virus, whether recovered or asymptomatic. In addition, the immune response against a zoonotic virus is not fully characterized, as well as the behavior of the population’s immune response. Differences in response exist in various viral groups in Cuacasian, Asian or black populations. Humanity must still go through new waves of the virus, but now they will be better prepared.